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By Dutch Wydo

Imagine that you are the head coach of an NFL team about to play the defending Super Bowl champions as decided underdogs. You realize that your team has a shortage of talent to go toe to toe against the champs. What type of plan would you put together that would give your squad the best chance to pull the upset?

How do you beat the Pittsburgh Steelers?

 

The first thing you might stress to your team is that it can’t turn the ball over. It is going to be difficult enough winning this game without giving the Steelers a short field.

Below are the five teams the Steelers have been defeated by this season when they were favored to win. Beside them is the amount of giveaways each team committed in their game against Pittsburgh.

Sep 20 at BEARS  > 0 Interceptions 0 Fumbles Lost

Sep 27 at BENGALS  > 0 Interceptions 0 Fumbles Lost

Nov 15 vs BENGALS  > 0 Interceptions 0 Fumbles Lost

Nov 22 at CHIEFS  > 0 Interceptions 1 Fumbles Lost (turned into 7 PIT points)

Dec 6 vs RAIDERS  > 0 Interceptions 0 Fumbles Lost

Mission accomplished!

The Oakland Raiders have given the ball away this season more than two times per game, on average. But the tilt with the Steelers was their game of the year. It was their Super Bowl. They weren’t going to hand this game to Pittsburgh.

Of course, turnovers are also predicated on having some luck. For example, the Detroit Lions fumbled the football four times against the Steelers this year, but the Lions recovered each one. The recovery of a fumble is all about luck. It's not an uncommon occurrence when a team has a great year in terms of turnover differential and then turn around the following year and have it go the other way.

Case in point, here are some recent teams' Turnover Differentials in back-to-back years (and their record at the end of the regular season).

2005 Seattle +9 (13-3)  >  2006 Seattle -9 (9-7)

2006 Ravens +15 (13-3)  >  2007 Ravens -17 (5-11)

2006 Tampa Bay -11 (4-12)  >  2007 Tampa Bay +15 (9-7)

2007 Seattle +10 (10-6)  >  2008 Seattle -7 (4-12)

2005 Steelers +7 (11-5)  >  2006 Steelers -6 (8-8)

 

The second point of emphasis to your team must be on special teams. You must win that battle. This means you cannot give the world champs a cheap score. It would also help if your team could manufacture a special teams score for itself.

Here is the number of special teams scores by the Steelers in the five games mentioned previously.

Zero.

Mission Accomplished! Pittsburgh had no cheap scores on special teams. Not only that, but the Steelers have routinely allowed their opponents great field position (or scores) while in kickoff coverage.

 

The third part of your game plan must include an emphasis in the red zone. You must realize that your team is not going to get many chances inside the Steelers' 20 yard line. But when they do get a chance, they must make it count by punching it in for a touchdown.

Bears  >  2 for 2 in red zone against Steelers

Chiefs  >  1 for 3 in red zone against Steelers

Raiders  >  2 for 2 in red zone against Steelers

Mission Accomplished!

These three teams have won an average of four games this season, yet the Steelers defense allowed them to convert five out of seven (71%) red zone chances into touchdowns.

 

The final part of your plan to pull the upset must include some sort of speech to your players that goes something like this:

“Guys, we are going to take care of the football in this game. We're going to play good situational football. Above all, we need to keep this game close and WIN IT IN THE FOURTH  QUARTER!”

Here are the 4th quarter scores in the five losses where the Steelers were favored to win.

Bears 10, Steelers 0

Bengals 14, Steelers 0

Bengals 6, Steelers 3

Chiefs 10, Steelers 7 (including OT)

Raiders 21, Steelers 14

Mission Accomplished! The Steelers have been outscored 61-24 during the fourth quarter in these five games.

The Steeler defense seems surprised that these teams keep bringing so much energy late in the game, but it should not be. Their opponents' coaches have stressed it all week. If they can just keep the game close, the will have a chance to win it in the end. Therefore, the Steelers need to be expecting of this type of play from these teams in these late-game situations.

Perhaps the Steelers have forgotten what it is like to be underdogs. How many times did Steeler fans hear former Head Coach Bill Cowher say before a big road game against a good opponent that they just need to find a way to win in the fourth quarter?

These Steelers play as if their weaker opponents should just quit after the third quarter. They have the wrong mindset going into these games. Mike Tomlin has had a bad season.

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Holmes could become a problem

After Pittsburgh's second loss to the Bengals this season, wide receiver Santonio Holmes basically blamed quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, saying that if he felt  that things just didn't feel right (which Ben had said in a prior interview), that probably explains why they lost.

Last week, Holmes seemed to join fellow receiver Hines Ward in going public with his dissatisfaction that Roethlisberger let him down by not playing against the Baltimore Ravens despite recently suffering a concussion.

Then, following last Sunday's loss to the Raiders, Holmes blamed the defense for the loss, saying,  “knowing that the offense went down and did our job. We left everything to our defense. A couple of mishaps here and there and they won the ball game. It was very unacceptable to us as a team.”

Actually, these post-game quotes by Holmes is what is unacceptable.

Holmes is a fine player, but doesn’t he have areas in his own game that could be improved?

Perhaps he could work on missing fewer hot routes and improve his top ten ranking in most dropped balls this season. When Holmes cost the Steelers a win by running the wrong route against the Bengals in their first meeting, I don’t remember Roethlisberger blaming Holmes after the game. But, then again, Roethlisberger is a leader.

Maybe Holmes could improve in that area, too. It would be nice if Mike Tomlin would nip this in the bud before they have a full-fledged Terrell Owens kind of situation on their hands in the not so distant future. I'm tired of receivers running off at the mouth.

And speaking of things that tire me...

I’m tired of everything that has to do with the Steelers' kicking game. I’m tired of Jeff Reed and his police arrests. I’m tired of his practical jokes, and I got tired of him blowing kicks in Chicago.

I’m tired of the Steelers' kick coverage. I’m tired of Tomlin trotting Reed out to attempt a 53 yard kick at Heinz field when kickers are 2-13 lifetime in that stadium on kicks over 50 yards.

I’ve really grown tired of Reed’s kickoffs. He only has one touchback on the season.

If the Steelers want to help their kick coverage, how about getting a kicker that can put it in the end zone once in a while!

I’m also tired of seeing coaches kick field goals on fourth down from the 1-yard line in 0-0 tie ball game. Tomlin did it in Cincinnati, and I’m sure he will do it again at some point. It is terrible math, and it should be unforgivable for coaches who make millions of dollars.

NFL teams are about 65 percent to score a touchdown from the 1- yard line.

Here's the math: 0.65 multiplied by 7 (cause extra point nearly automatic) equals 4.55 points, instead 3 points for the field goal.

In addition to that, even if it turns out to be in the 35 percent when you fail to punch it in, you will have put your opponent in such bad field position that your team will still be the odds-on favorite to score first in the game.

Another area that the Steelers must improve upon is their red zone rushing efficiency.

Running back Rashard Mendenhall has been terrific, averaging five yards per carry. But the Steelers have not been able to find success rushing inside the opponents 20.

The Steelers are 26th worst in the league in red zone rushing efficiency. You might be surprised at a couple of teams in the top three in that department.

Top 3 NFL teams in red zone rushing efficiency

1 New Orleans Saints

2 Indianapolis Colts

3 Arizona Cardinals

We always hear about the Colts' struggling running game, but did you see Joseph Addai power his way into the end zone Sunday from the 8 yard line? The Colts are really running the ball well in that part of the field. They made some personnel changes on the offensive line throughout the season and those changes have paid off as the stats indicate.

Recently, the San Diego Chargers hammered the Chiefs by scoring 28 points off turnovers.

That’s how you blow out bad teams. You can’t ask your offense to go 80 yards all the time and expect 30 points per game.

The Steelers rarely get a turnover, giving the offense a short field with which to work. In fact, their cornerbacks still don’t have an interception on the season.

The Steelers scored 24 points against Oakland. If the defense could have generated just one takeaway and the offense parlayed it into a quick touchdown, they would have been looking at 31.

That’s what team like the Saints are doing so well. They have 36 takeaways on the season. They have 23 Interceptions while the Steelers only have eight.

Between their inability to get turnovers, run effectively in the red zone, tackle on special teams and kick a ball off a tee past the goal line, the 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers just seem intent on making things harder than they need to be. The Steelers are bottoming out in situational football. They are not being outplayed.

Steelers and their opponents Yards Per Play average in each of the five games.

Pittsburgh 5.2 Chicago 4.8

Pittsburgh 8.5 Bengals 4.4

Pittsburgh 6.6 Chiefs  5.1

Pittsburgh 3.6 Bengals 3.6

Pittsburgh 7.7 Raiders 6.1

Dutch Wydo is a sportstalk show host on wmbs590 radio Uniontown Saturday morning from 9-10 a.m. He can reached by e-mail at  smartmonies@gmail.com