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By Dutch Wydo

There are two statistics you need to focus on when handicapping the NFL playoffs. 

The first is yards-per-pass differential, and the second is yards-per-play differential. Listed below are the season averages in both categories of all teams that have qualified and are in contention for a postseason berth. Included in the list are the average in each team's last three games (L3) with their opponents in those contests to the immediate right.   

NFC Yards Per Play Differential

Philadelphia Eagles +1.2 (+1.0 L3) New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers,Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers +1.2 (+0.7 L3) Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers ,Seattle Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys +1.0 (+1.0 L3) San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints, Washington Redskins

New Orleans Saints +0.9 (-0.8 L3) Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings +0.4 (-0.4 L3) Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers

Arizona Cardinals +0.2 (+0.8 L3) San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams 

NFC Yards Per Pass Differential

Eagles +1.7 (+2.9 L3)

Saints +1.6 (-2.1 L3)

Packers +1.5 (+0.7 L3)

Dallas +1.3 (+1.8 L3)

Vikings +0.8 (-0.8 L3)

Cardinals +0.7 (+2.3 L3) 

AFC Yards Per Play Differential

Indianapolis Colts +1.2 (+0.6 L3) Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets

Pittsburgh Steelers +0.8 (+0.2 L3) Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens

New York Jets +0.7 (+0.9 L3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore Ravens +0.7 (+2.4 L3) Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers

San Diego Chargers +0.6 (-0.2 L3) Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans

Houston Texans +0.5 (+1.8 L3) Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots +0.4 (+0.3 L3) Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars

Denver Broncos +0.4 (-0.5 L3) Indinapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles

Cincinnati Bengals +0.0 (-0.1 L3) Minnesota Vikings, San Diego Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs

Miami Dolphins -0.9 (-0.2 L3) Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans 

AFC Yards Per Pass Differential

Chargers +2.3 (+1.6 L3)

Colts +1.9 (+1.5 L3)

Texans +1.5 (+3.5 L3)

Steelers +1.5 (+1.1 L3)

Jets +1.2 (+1.4 L3)

Patriots +1.1 (+1.1 L3)

Broncos +0.7 (+0.1 L3)

Ravens +0.5 (+2.8 L3)

Bengals +0.3 (-0.7 L3)

Dolphins -1.8 (-1.1 L3) 

As we get into the playoffs, yards per pass differential has worked slightly better over the years to determine which team is superior. But that is not to discount yards per play.  

One of the things that I've learned is that teams that have been overachieving due to a positive turnover differential during the regular season have had that catch up with them come playoff time. The better teams won't give games away by turning the ball over, so you have to rely on the actual strength of your team (yards per play differential) to advance. Another reason why yards per pass differential often works well is that good running teams won't be able to run against the top defenses and they will be forced out of their comfort zone (former Steelers head coach Bill Cowher had this happen to him for years) and have to pass to score, especially early on.   

Offensive yards per attempt is the most important stat, followed closely behind is defensive yards per attempt. If the SB winning team doesn't have a high Off yards per attempt, check the def yards per attempt and you will often find they are #1 or #2 in the league in that category. The Oakland Raiders from the early 1980s are good example.  

The formula for a championship in the NFL today is to pass to gain a lead, run the ball late in the game to eat clock, and let your excellent secondary cover the receivers while your great pass rush tees off on the opposing quarterback. 

Other Notes  

The 2007 New York Giants remarkable run to a title is tough to explain. The only thing that can be said is that they caught fire at the exact right time and caught the Patriots on their downhill slide.  

Here were the stats for each of those teams' previous three games going into that fateful game. 

Yards Per Play Differential 

Pats = +0.1

Giants = +0.5 

Yards Per Pass Differential  

Pats = +0.8

Giants = +1.0  

Based on their three previous games before the Super Bowl, the Giants were playing better. Especially considering those games were all on the road.  

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Last year the Arizona Cardinals were slumping late in the season, but their run in the playoffs can be easily explained.  

Their quarterback Kurt Warner reverted back to his stunning career form and posted an 8.2 yards per pass attempt average in the three playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl against Pittsburgh. Of course, this should not have surprised anyone as Warner is one of the all-time greats in the NFL's most important statistical category. (Despite that, I'm fairly certain Peter King of Sports Illustrated has no idea of the importance of such stat, nor would he have any idea of what I'm writing about. Sad to say, King has a Hall of Fame vote) 

Click on the link below to see the all-time leaders.  

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_per_att_career.htm 

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The 2005 Steelers got their act together and, based on yards per pass differential, no one should have been shocked that they had defeated the Colts.  

Yards Per Pass Differential for 2005 Season 

Steelers +1.7

Colts =1.6 

Yards Per Pass Differential in three previous games leading up to Colts/Steelers Playoff 

Steelers = +5.0 (offense averaged 10.0 yards per attempt in three previous games!!! Roethlisberger was excellent.)

Colts = -0.1 (Colts sat out players in these games) 

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Tips for picking this year's Super Bowl winner would include: 

Eliminate any playoff team with a road record below .500  (no team has ever won a Super Bowl with a losing road record)  

Eliminate the NFL's passing yardage leader. (no quarterback that ever led the league in passing yards, won the Super Bowl in the same season. Tom Brady became the closest to do that in 2007)  

Finally, only one team in the history of the Super Bowl won the big game despite finishing that season with a negative yards per pass differential. That was the 2001 Patriots. And, of course, they cheated.