Aug 14, 2018 3 min read

Few people were as enthusiastic about the trades that brought Chris Archer and Keone Kela to Pittsburgh as yours truly.

I also felt that the cost paid to pick up the two right-handers was one worth paying for a franchise battling for a playoff spot in 2018 and possibly setting up for bigger things in 2019.

Then word came on Tuesday night that the team’s No. 1 pick from the 2017 draft, pitcher Shane Baz, was the final piece in the Archer deal.

Adding Baz to the package to get the 29-year-old righty may have just ratcheted up the expectations for Archer and the team in the near future.

Baz, who was 4-6 with an ERA in the 3.8 range over his time in the Black-and-Gold system, makes it three prospects highly touted by not only the Pirates, but national prospect ranking services, to get a guy who, even by optimistic expectations, projects as a No. 3 starter at best.

So far, Archer hasn’t been terrible, but he hasn’t been great either.

In two starts, the dreadlocked fan favorite is 1-0 with a 4.82 ERA. Neither of those numbers are particularly concerning to me. However, the fact that he sports a 1.93 WHIP, worst among starters and third-highest among all Bucco pitchers, and has lasted just 9 1/3 innings are a couple of red flags.

For a team like Pittsburgh that is seemingly always looking to ease its bullpen’s workload, Archer needs to bump up to an average of at least six innings per start.

Thankfully, Kela has been a part of a major renaissance for the back end of the relief pitchers. If Archer’s deal seems pretty rich, the 25-year-old setup man has been a bargain more akin to the Daniel Hudson for Corey Dickerson preseason move.

In his first five outings, Kela has yielded just three hits and a walk over five innings. He has six strikeouts and opposing batters are hitting just .188. Remember Archer’s robust 1.93 WHIP? Kela’s average is less than half that at 0.80.

Ironically, looking at the two moves as a whole, the Kela trade may be the one that allows Archer to ultimately succeed in the short term.

With Kyle Crick, Kela and Felipe Vazquez comprising one of the best young game-shortening trios in the major leagues, No. 24 should be able to pitch with the freedom of knowing that the vast majority of any leads are going to be safe if he can just get to the seventh frame.

But what about the team’s future past 2020?

If he is being sincere in his lovefest for his new home city, Archer wants to be in Pittsburgh for the foreseeable future. If he can avoid the injury bug and perhaps expand his two-pitch repertoire, there’s no reason to believe Archer can’t succeed into his mid 30s.

However, if the Pirates don’t make a return to the postseason during Archer’s tenure and the Rays successfully rebuild with Baz, Glasnow and Austin Meadows, all those positive feelings about Archer and Kela sail right out the window. Should that happen, don’t expect to see any more splashy prospects-for-veteran moves for a very long time.