Democrats may gain majority of governorships
More than a dozen races for governor remain neck-and-neck in this election’s final, furious days as Democrats push to win back control of a majority of the states’ top offices. Republicans, who gained that majority in 1994 by wresting 11 governor’s mansions from the Democrats, now face the strong prospect of losing their 27-21 majority.
Though each state focuses on its own issues, the governors have a lot to offer the national parties, including a loud voice to shape domestic policies and a platform to boost presidential hopefuls in 2004.
The stakes are clear to Republicans, who know what the past eight years of GOP dominance after years of Democratic control in the states has meant: “It’s helped us deliver the White House, number one,” said Connecticut Gov. John Rowland, chairman of the Republican Governors Association.
“Nationally, Republican governors have helped frame the issues on welfare reform and education reform and given more power back to the states,” as well, he said.
This year, term limits and retirements make the situation tough for the GOP: Of 36 seats up for election, Republicans are defending 23, while Democrats are defending 11. Minnesota and Maine are held by independents.
Add to that falling state revenues and program cuts, and incumbents – and those tied to outgoing administrations – are vulnerable to calls for change.
Democrats expect to pick up seven seats, and possibly as many as nine.
Polls show Democrats either ahead or slightly ahead in longtime GOP states like Pennsylvania and Arizona – and in crucial Midwestern swing states like Illinois, Michigan and Kansas.
Republicans are favored to reverse recent Democratic gains in Alabama and South Carolina.
Polls show many of the races excruciatingly close: Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Oregon and Hawaii all are tight.
In Vermont, if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote – a real possibility according to pre-election polls – then the state Legislature will choose the next governor. A majority of the legislators are Republican.
Other campaigns have become surprisingly competitive, including races in Arkansas and Wyoming and the Florida race between GOP Gov. Jeb Bush and Democrat Bill McBride.
Among incumbents, the South has seen the most turmoil. Democrats Jim Hodges in South Carolina and Don Siegelman in Alabama, as well as Arkansas Republican Mike Huckabee, are all barely holding their own against challengers. Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott McCallum has also been struggling.
The Florida race has drawn a huge amount of money and attention from the national parties, given the Bush name and the large role Florida played in President Bush’s 2000 victory.
Women candidates, meanwhile, are in position to win a record number of seats.
A record five women now serve as governor – in Arizona, Delaware, Montana, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. All 10 women running for governor are competitive, and observers say that’s no fluke.
“For so long, women have been seen as the outsiders, as the people breaking in,” said Deborah Walsh at the Center for the American Woman and Politics at Rutgers University. “These women are really insiders. It’s what you would hope for after lo, these many years, with women running and getting into politics.”
Record-breaking spending has marked races in big states like Texas and New York, and small states such as New Hampshire, South Carolina and New Mexico.
Though both Democratic and Republican governors are struggling with falling revenues and shortfalls, the question is “How are you going to handle this?” said Maryland Gov. Parris Glendening, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.
“Many Republicans give the impression that they’ll cut no matter what, whether it’s health services or education. Democrats are saying they’ll be fair,” he said.
Democrats say that if they do take a majority, that would be a clear statement on Republicans’ domestic policy failures.
But Republicans and some political observers say the results of the election – whatever they are – won’t signal frustration with the GOP.
It’s really about timing, said David Rohde, a political science professor at Michigan State University. “The stage is set. … It’s hard for (Democrats) not to make gains.”
And Republicans aren’t just throwing up their hands. They say they expect to win in close races in Democratic strongholds like Maryland, Massachusetts and Hawaii, as well as elsewhere.
Politicians and pollsters alike warn that everything is fluid up until Election Day itself, and many races depend on factors that run from bad weather affecting voter turnout to a last-minute scandal.
“This is truly, truly the situation where for the first time in a long time, the experts are baffled,” said Pennsylvania pollster G. Terry Madonna. “The voters, unfettered by what we have to say, will make the difference.”