Gubernatorial races could alter balance of power across U.S.
Republican governors hold power in eight of 12 Midwestern states, and have occupied the executive mansion in many of them for more than a decade. But that control will be at risk Tuesday when voters go to polls. In the South, a pair of Democratic governors whose 1998 victories bucked the region’s Republican leanings are now struggling to stay in office. And New England is up for grabs, with out-of-power parties ahead in several states and very tight contests elsewhere.
At least 20 new leaders are guaranteed to emerge from this year’s gubernatorial elections, thanks to term limits and retirements, and the results may well shift partisan control in several regions of the country.
That’s important because of the ripple effects the governors’ races will likely have on domestic policy and presidential politics in 2004.
“Just look at that block of electoral votes alone to see the implication just a few years from now,” said Maryland Gov. Parris Glendening, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.
“Having an incumbent governor is worth about 3 points in a presidential election,” he said. “It’s part of the fund-raising base, the turn-out-the-vote base, and part of the pool of future presidential candidates.”
In the Midwest, Democratic candidates are polling ahead in Illinois, where Republicans have held power for 25 years; Michigan, Republican for 12 years; Wisconsin, Republican for 16 years; and Kansas, GOP for eight years.
In another large, industrial swing state – Pennsylvania – the Democratic candidate is leading.
Voters in many places seem ready for change after a long run with the same governor or party, said Professor Carol Weissert, who teaches about governors races in her state politics class at Michigan State University.
“Political scientists know that with these longtime governors, there’s a peak in their popularity. It’s sort of like a bell curve,” she said. And that dissatisfaction carries through to candidates tied to the outgoing administration, she said.
Dissatisfaction isn’t limited to one region of the country.
In the South, budget shortfalls are a major campaign problem for two Democrats who four years ago beat Republican incumbents.
Now, Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman and South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges are both facing strong Republican challengers, making them two of the most vulnerable incumbent governors nationwide.
“I would not be surprised to see Republicans upset those governors,” said political scientist Merle Black of Emory University.
“But it’s really close. It really depends on turnout – Democrats really need to maximize black turnout,” said Black, co-author of “The Rise of Southern Republicans.”
Those aren’t the only Southern governors facing competitive challenges, however – Republicans Jeb Bush in Florida and Mike Huckabee in Arkansas are both in close races, though polls show them in better position than the Democrats. And in Tennessee, where the open seat was last held by the GOP, the race is a toss-up.
New England, too, is bound for change: Maine, governed by an independent for eight years, is favored to go Democratic; New Hampshire, governed by a Democrat for six years, is favored to go Republican; Vermont, governed by a Democrat, could let the GOP-controlled Legislature choose its next governor if one candidate doesn’t get more than 50 percent – a real possibility.
And Massachusetts and Rhode Island, both now held by the GOP, are dead-heat races.
“What you’re seeing in New England – the voters are mad at whoever is holding the bag,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. “They’re just voting for change.”
Republicans see the chance to make extend their hold in New England, if everything breaks their way: the GOP could wind up with governors in Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Hampshire.
“We’ll pick up a few in the Northeast that we didn’t expect a year ago,” said Connecticut Gov. John Rowland, chairman of the Republican Governors Association.
Rowland acknowledged the likelihood of losing ground in the Midwest – “the battleground states are the battleground states. They’ll be battleground for president. They’ll be battleground for governor.” But he predicts the GOP will remain strong overall.
“We had a lot of ground to protect,” he said. “We’ve had a great run for the last eight years.”
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On the Net:
Republican Governors association: http://www.rga.org
Democratic Governors Association: http://www.dga.net