Nov 21, 2002 3 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) – Oil imports will continue to grow in the next decade with two of every three barrels coming from overseas by 2025, the Energy Department predicted Wednesday. The long-term outlook, generated by the department’s Energy Information Administration, said that net imports of oil and oil products will reach 68 percent of U.S. consumption by 2025, an increase from just over 55 percent today.

America also will rely much more on foreign refineries to meet demand for gasoline, heating oil and jet fuel because of a shortage of refineries in this country, the report said. By 2025, refined products are expected to account for 34 percent of petroleum imports, more than twice the share today.

The report also said the country’s reliance on foreign sources of natural gas is expected to increase significantly, although some of that will depend on an expansion of pipelines from Canada and on construction of new terminals for imports of liquefied natural gas.

If those improvements are made, net natural gas imports are projected to double, accounting for 22 percent of expected demand by 2025. Imports will jump from 3.6 trillion cubic feet to 7.8 trillion cubic feet.

The Bush administration and many congressional Republicans have often cited the growing reliance on petroleum imports as a reason to open more federal lands to oil and gas exploration, including drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

But environmentalists argue that even if the Alaska refuge and other protected lands are developed, it will not dramatically reduce the country’s reliance on imports unless the government pursues new measures to dampen oil consumption such as requiring more fuel efficient cars and trucks.

The forecast also projected that:

– Average oil prices will reach $48 a barrel by 2025, about double the current price. But that will be equivalent to about $26 in today’s dollars, taking into account normal inflation.

– Average electricity prices will decline slightly over the next five years because of excess capacity and then gradually increase.

– Natural gas prices will increase steadily from current levels of less than $3 a thousand cubic feet to just over $7 a thousand cubic feet by 2025.

– Coal will remain the primary fuel for electric power plants although natural gas will take a larger share than now.

-The amount of electricity generated by nuclear power will increase slightly and then level off at current levels as most producers keep reactors running under extended operating licenses.

-Electricity generation from renewable sources, such as solar and wind, will increase about 2 percent a year. Faster growth is expected to be held back because the cost of power from coal and gas will remain relatively low, the report predicts.