Leading economic indicators flat in October
NEW YORK (AP) – A gauge of U.S. economic activity was flat in October after four straight months of declines. The New York-based Conference Board on Thursday reported its Index of Leading Economic Indicators was unchanged at 111.4, after falling a revised 0.4 percent in September. Analysts had expected an October decline of 0.1 percent.
A better employment picture neutralized weaker consumer attitudes, the conference board said.
The index measures where the overall U.S. economy is headed in the next three to six months. It stood at 100 in 1996, its base year.
Douglas Parker, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities in Chicago, viewed the economy’s apparent stagnation in October as good news in light of the fact that it had been declining since June.
“It does look like the economy’s weakness is starting to ebb a bit,” Parker said, although he added there are still “a lot of mixed messages out there.”
Six of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index rose in October, including building permits and manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and materials, the Conference Board said.
Negative contributors were the index of consumer expectations and average weekly manufacturing hours.
“Only consumption has consistently fueled the recovery through the first ten months of this year,” said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein, adding that the leading indicators “are not pointing toward a more positive outlook.”
Meanwhile, the nation’s job picture continued to brighten. New claims for unemployment benefits plunged last week to the lowest level in four months, the Labor Department reported Thursday. New applications for unemployment insurance fell by a seasonally adjusted 25,000 to 376,000 for the workweek ending Nov. 16, leaving claims at their lowest level since the week ending July 20.
The news helped keep stocks in positive territory, sending the Dow Jones industrial average up 161 points to 8,784 in morning trading. The Nasdaq composite index advanced 41 to 1,460.
The Conference Board’s coincident index, which measures current economic activity, was also steady in October at 115.1. The index of lagging indicators, which reflects changes that have already occurred, remained steady last month at 100.0.
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