Democrats, Republicans disagree on Rendell factor in election
HARRISBURG – Democrat leaders this year once again are confident they can reclaim control of the state House of Representatives. Meanwhile, Republican leaders believe they will increase their numbers. But most political analysts who have been following House races predict Democrats may have a net pickup of a couple seats in next month’s election, but it won’t be enough to regain control of the House.
The reason for the varying predictions is Ed Rendell. A poll released last week showed the Democrat gubernatorial candidate leading GOP gubernatorial candidate Mike Fisher by 20 percent statewide, and enjoying the support of about 75 percent of those surveyed in Philadelphia and its suburbs.
Democrats believe the former Philadelphia mayor’s popularity will trickle down to the Democrat candidates in southeastern Pennsylvania, and enable them to reclaim the majority of seats for the first time since 1994.
“I think this year is our best chance in the last eight years because Ed Rendell is doing so well in southeastern Pennsylvania and we think voters understand that the best way to help a governor is to elect legislators who believe in the governor’s policies, platform and principles,” said House Minority Whip Mike Veon, co-chairman of the Rendell campaign and one of the chief strategists behind Democrats’ statewide efforts to regain control of the House. “I think we can make up the whole difference in southeastern Pennsylvania.”
But Republican leaders disagree.
“I think they [the Democrats] are going to go down,” said Rep. Brett Feese, a Lycoming County Republican and chairman of the House Republican Campaign Committee.
“The only people I hear talking about a Rendell factor is the media,” said Feese, R-Pennsdale. “It’s a media-created factor because the polling doesn’t justify that concept at all. It makes good stories.”
While the Senate, which is also controlled by the GOP, is not expected to change hands, the House could. Reclaiming control of the House is crucial to Democrats. If Rendell wins and the House remains Republican, Rendell would have to negotiate with Republican leaders in both chambers, making it difficult for him to pass his agenda.
The GOP currently holds a 105 to 98 advantage over Democrats in the House. Democrats would need to take away four seats from Republicans to reclaim the majority in the House.
But this election, two seats are moving from Democrat strongholds in Western Pennsylvania to Republican-dominated areas in Eastern Pennsylvania due to reapportionment. Democrat leaders concede that the two seats, which will be located in York and Lancaster counties, will probably be won by Republicans.
That means Democrats will need to reclaim six seats, political analysts say. But riding on Rendell’s coattails, the party may be able to at least reduce Republican’s control over the House.
“I think Rendell will have some coattails effects but whether it’s enough to put Democrats back in control is almost unanswerable,” said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University.
“It brings out new voters and those voters are sometimes not the most knowledgeable voters,” said Michael Young, a former Penn State University professor who is a Harrisburg-based political consultant. “They’ll end up voting for the guy they went to vote for and them find themselves standing in the booth, asking, ‘What do I do now?’ If they’re Rendell supporters, some of them are going to pull the lever for the Democratic ticket. And that’s the concern among Republican candidates.”
Because of the Rendell factor, Democrat leaders believe they can win several state House seats currently held by Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs. In particular, they are zeroing in on nine seats located in Bucks and Montgomery counties.
In Bucks County, Rep. Roy Reinard is retiring from office at the end of this term, and Veon believes Democrat Carl Cherkin stands a good chance of defeating Republican Scott Petri for the seat that represents Northampton.
Veon, D-West Mayfield, also believes that the Democrat candidate in the 18th District, Scott Blacker, could knock of incumbent Gene DiGirolamo, a Republican lawmaker who represents Bensalem. A recent tracking poll showed the race was close, a Democrat official said. Another incumbent who could be in jeopardy is Matt Wright, who represents Langhorne. He faces Democrat Chris King.
There’s also a new seat in Bucks County. A third seat, the 29th District, is moving from the western part of the state to the east. It will cover parts of Buckingham, Solebury, Upper Southampton, Warwick and New Hope. Normally, that seat would be considered Republican-friendly, but because of the Rendell factor it’s up for grabs.
In Montgomery County, Democrat leaders are targeting four Republican incumbents: Reps. John Fichter, R-Norristown; Wallis Brooks, R-Upper Merion; Mary Ann Dailey, R-Pottstown; and Ellen Bard, R-Abington. In addition, there’s an open seat that Democrats believe they can reacquire. Rep. Lita Cohen, R-Conshohocken, is not seeking re-election.
“I think any Republican on the ballot in Montgomery County is in danger of getting swept aside by Rendell tidal wave,” Veon said. “The county is trending Democrat. Bill Clinton carried it twice, Al Gore carried it last election and [Democrat] Joe Hoeffel is the congressman there.”
Beyond the Bux-Mont area, Veon sees three other southeastern GOP seats as being in play: one in Delaware County and two in the Lehigh Valley area.
Democrat candidates say Rendell’s presence on the ticket has significantly boosted their chances of winning.
“Absolutely,” Blacker said. “Our signs say, ‘Blacker-Rendell,’ our literature talks about how Rendell needs partners in the Legislature who are going to support his policies. So, if you elect Rendell, you’ve really got to elect Blacker.”
GOP incumbents admit that Rendell’s influence could make their races close.
“Certainly, if you’re a Republican anywhere in the southeast you have to be concerned about Ed Rendell’s popularity,” DiGirolamo said. “But I’ve been in office for eight years but I believe voters in Bucks County have a history of splitting their tickets.”
Madonna and Young, however, see only four battles in House districts: Reinard’s vacant seat, the new seat in Bucks County, Cohen’s vacant seat and the Delaware County seat. GOP incumbents should be safe, Madonna said.
“Usually incumbents are immune to coattails effects,” he said. “That’s why they’re incumbents. They have their own identity and agenda.”
But upsets could happen, Young and Madonna agreed.
“There are very few races where there aren’t a surprise or two somewhere on the ticket,” Young said.
Even if Democrats could win those four competitive races and pull off a couple other upsets, they still may fall short of reclaiming control of the House.
“The bigger point is the Democrats have to win everywhere else,” Madonna said. “They can’t suffer an upset [themselves].”
“That’s a dangerous assumption,” Young said of Democrats counting on the seats they already have.
For example, in Beaver County, a Democrat stronghold, the 15th District seat could go to a Republican for a change. After serving 22 years in the House, Democrat Nick Colafella is retiring. His assistant, Vince Biancucci, faces Republican Charles Camp, a Beaver County Commissioner.
“This could be one to watch,” said Al Neri, editor of The Insider, a Harrisburg-based political newsletter. Neri listed a few other seats currently held by Democrats that could fall prey to Republican challengers.
House Democrats reclaiming power is “possible, but I wouldn’t put that in a likely category,” Madonna said.
“They have a pretty big hill to climb in terms of recapturing the majority,” said Young. “My guess is we’ll end [election] night within two seats of where we started. I don’t think you’ll see a wide swing either way.”