Sep 11, 2004 3 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) – U.S. intelligence officials are studying the latest video from Osama bin Laden’s top deputy to learn if the message is simply to rally al-Qaida’s faithful – or if it’s an indication of events to come. The Central Intelligence Agency determined with a high degree of confidence Friday that the message was in fact from al-Qaida’s No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahri. The U.S. government has offered up to $25 million for information leading to his killing or capture.

An intelligence official speaking on condition of anonymity said government experts are examining numerous aspects of the recording, including whether it may be a precursor to an attack. However, the official cautioned that such a pattern hold true only occasionally.

The official said the tape comes amid rising concerns about threats to the U.S. homeland and bin Laden’s now-expired truce offer to Europe. In April, bin Laden gave European governments three months to leave Iraq, Afghan-istan and other Muslim countries or risk a terror campaign.

However, former CIA counterterrorism chief Vince Cannistraro doesn’t believe the tape contains hidden messages. “It is a pretty obvious message: We are here, we are viable, we are going to continue driving the Americans crazy,” he said.

Al-Zawahri’s tape marks the third year in a row that al-Qaida has released a Sept. 11 anniversary videotape. However, in previous years, bin Laden delivered the message.

The intelligence official said bin Laden may not appear for a number of reasons, but declined to speculate. Current and former officials have said al-Qaida’s concerns about bin Laden’s security may top the list.

Pakistani Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed said Friday that bin Laden’s absence may mean he’s dead. “It is just my political guess that Osama bin Laden is nowhere because we have not heard anything from him for a long time,” he said.

But, in an interview with the Associated Press, Secretary of State Colin Powell said he believes the terror leader is alive, although he has no proof.

“He clearly is in hiding and he is on the run,” Powell said. “He is not popping up on television and he is not showing himself in a way that he can be captured.”

Segments of al-Zawahri’s message first aired Thursday on the Arab television network Al-Jazeera. In it, a bearded al-Zawahri proclaimed the United States will be defeated in Iraq and Afghanistan. An assault weapon was propped against the wall behind him. “The Americans in both countries are between two fires. If they continue, they bleed to death and, if they withdraw, they lose everything,” al-Zawahri said.

He also warned of plans to tear apart the Arab and Islamic worlds.

U.S. officials believe al-Zawahri’s tape was made recently because of a reference to the 19-month conflict in Sudan’s Darfur region, which lately has received increasing political and media attention. Government-backed Arab militia have been murdering and assaulting black Africans there. This week, the United States termed it a genocide.

Condoleezza Rice, President Bush’s national security adviser, said in a television interview Friday that al-Qaida leaders are “sitting in a cave” making tapes, “but they are still a very dangerous organization.”