Crude oil futures climb back above $55 a barrel
By Brad Foss AP Business Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) – Crude futures settled above $55 a barrel Friday, finishing a shortened trading week more than $3 a barrel higher, as traders’ supply fears were bolstered by an Energy Department official who predicted new record highs for oil prices because of “paltry” domestic inventory levels.
Analysts have noted different pulls on the market in recent days, though one of the major themes has been the concern that as refiners strive to meet today’s strong demand for gasoline and diesel, they could end up having difficulty producing enough heating oil later in the year.
Heating oil futures have surged more than 10 percent in the past week, climbing to $1.5595 a gallon Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a 5.73-cent increase.
John Cook, director of the petroleum division at the agency’s Energy Information Administration, helped justify the market’s nervousness, telling Dow Jones Newswires “I think we’ll see new records, not necessarily by much, but I think we may even average $60 for a month.”
“The demand growth is going to be there, and the inventory surpluses we have are pretty paltry to begin with and they are going to disappear,” Cook was quoted as saying.
Light sweet crude for July delivery climbed $1.40 to $55.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rising eight out of the nine past trading sessions. On Thursday, prices finished 97 cents lower at $53.63.
Gasoline futures increased by 4.17 cents to $1.5571 per gallon.
Oil analyst Tim Evans of IFR Energy Services in New York said he considered Cook’s comments to be irresponsible, given the climate of fear already permeating the market
“He’s acting more like a cheerleader for the rally than he is an analyst, or a keeper of the numbers,” said Evans, whose own analysis has led him to conclude that hype and speculation – not genuinely tight supplies – have pushed oil prices to record levels.
“There is this ingrained belief that even if the market’s not tight today, it’s going to be tomorrow,” Evans said.
But broker Tom Bentz of BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York said Cook’s comments merely confirmed what many traders have been saying for months. Still, Bentz said he was “a little surprised that he would make those comments … It just sparks fear.”
On Thursday, the EIA said inventories of crude oil rose last week by 1.4 million barrels to 333.8 million barrels, or 11 percent above last year, while gasoline inventories grew by 1.3 million barrels to 216.7 million barrels, up 6 percent from a year ago.
But distillate fuel supplies rose by only 700,000 barrels to 106.4 million barrels, or roughly equal to year-ago levels. That added to worries that there might not be enough heating oil and diesel output for the next winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.
But Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie said “the market is making a mistake in assuming linkages between distillate prices and crude prices,” adding that the growing crude inventories should lower prices. “With higher inventory numbers and a substantial number of investors backing off in the summer, declining price levels to $40 is possible.”
At the moment, oil prices are 40 percent higher than a year ago.
In London, Brent crude rose $1.66 to $54.16 per barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets June 15. Analysts believe the 11-member group will not reduce its current output of 30 million barrels daily.
On Wednesday, OPEC President Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed al-Sabah said the group would maintain its current production ceiling until the third quarter of 2005.
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Associated Press Writers George Jahn in Vienna, Austria and Wee Sui Lee in Singapore contributed to this report.
AP-ES-06-03-05 1616EDT