Voters’ verdict: Harrisburg change necessary
HARRISBURG – Election Day Tuesday was conclusive: Pennsylvanian voters want a change. The sheer number of guaranteed newcomers next year – nearly one-fifth of the Legislature – makes the chances of reform in state government a real possibility. Political analysts say the vote to remove 17 incumbents, along with the 30 retirements, is historic.
Not since 1978 during a massive series of indictments on public corruption have so many lawmakers lost their seats. Not since 1964 has a legislative leader toppled to defeat, and Tuesday brought down the two Senate Republican leaders.
Political analysts say the vote to remove at least 14 incumbents, along with 30 retirements, is historic and three other possible upsets are too close to call.
All of the primary upsets and retirements leave a huge cadre of lame duck lawmakers sitting it out until November. A power vacuum in the Senate may spur on a jockeying for control. And scores of sitting lawmakers are facing November challengers that may have them worried more than ever about keeping their political skins.
The upsets could very well impact the still unsettled property tax debate, and throw a wild card into state budget negotiations coming up in less than a month. With top Senate leaders on their way out, the chamber’s Republican spot on the Gaming Control Board could change, possibly throwing a wrench into the approval of 14 slots licenses across the state.
Sen. Tommy Tomlison of Bucks County said it’s too early to tell all the implications of a change in Senate leadership, or even when it would come. The Senate cancelled plans to return to session next week.
“I talked to several members and we’re all in shock,” Tomlinson said. “We’re stunned. We might have expected one of the leaders to go but not both. It’s kind of a period of mourning, almost. Just catching your breath.”
The primary upsets were mostly in Republican races, where voters traded out incumbents for more conservative opponents who promised to curb state spending, cut taxes, and pledged against pay increases. Seven of the knockout winners were PACleanSweep candidates.
Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, could be in trouble trying to advance his agenda, said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Keystone Poll and Franklin & Marshall’s Center for Politics and Public Affairs.
“This is a defining moment in state politics,” Madonna said. “Normally, you’d look at this (number of upsets) and say, watch out for pay hikes and a pension increase, but I think there are too many survivors who don’t want to go through what they just went through. The bigger question to me is, what happens to the Rendell agenda should he win and have to deal with a more conservative House.”
Madonna said the vote against incumbents was triggered by the pay raise, but is really rooted in a struggle between Republican Party establishment and a more conservative base. All but one of the Republican upsets occurred in the most conservative part of the state, south central Pennsylvania. And all Republican losers but one in Crawford County voted in favor to hike their pay by 16 to 54 percent last July.
The winning challengers to Senate Pro Tempore Robert Jubelirer of Altoona and Senate Republican Leader David Brightbill of Lebanon County were both backed by the conservative Pennsylvania Club for Growth. That group helped bankroll nonstop radio advertisements in the final days of the campaign calling them “big government liberals” as the leaders spent millions of dollars from their campaign war chests to stop the voter bleed.
“People are framing this as a pay raise thing. It’s not,” said Chris Lilik, coordinator for Young Conservatives of Pennsylvania, which set up a political action committee to run the ads. “This is a victory for conservatives.”
Pennsylvania Republican State Committee executive director Scott Migli refuted claims that this election was a vote against party establishment, even though many of the incumbents who lost did so with party endorsements.
“I don’t believe this was a vote on the party and its soul,” he said. “This party has always been about including everyone who wants to be involved. At the end of the day we will move forward as a party.”
The Pennsylvania Democratic Party was gloating that all the Republican incumbent losses could bring them new seats in November, although the assessment seems unlikely for all but a few swing districts. The only southeastern lawmaker to lose was freshman Rep. Sue Cornell, whose Montgomery County district has the potential to switch to Democrat. In Bucks County, Rep. Matt Wright is facing a tough Democratic challenger in the fall in Chris King, and he knows it.
“He’s a young bright guy and he works hard and he has some motivation behind him,” said Wright, a pay raise supporter. “It will be a very, very difficult race – no doubt about it.”
Democratic incumbents – including the two top House Democratic leaders, H. William DeWeese (D-Waynesburg) and Mike Veon of Beaver County – for the most part skirted by safely.
One of the surprise defeats was 20-year incumbent Frank LaGrotta, who was tossed out by 25-year-old law school graduate Jaret Gibbons in Lawrence County. A number of the incumbent upsets came from low-financed, political novices. LaGrotta said the thought of his losing was “nowhere on my radar screen.” He hadn’t faced a primary opponent since he was first elected in 1986.
“We had done our opposition research. There was plenty of stuff we were prepared to do in terms of defining my opponent, but I didn’t see a need to do that,” he said.
Challenger Gibbons said he may have been helped by the portion of Beaver County newly tacked onto the district during redistricting, where voters had no relationship with LaGrotta. He also was a bit stunned by his success.
“I’m a bit surprised. But in a sense looking at the sentiment I got from people, it’s time for a change,” Gibbons said. “That was the resounding word that came from many places.”
Gibbons and other would-be lawmakers, should they win in November, are chomping at reform. If they have their way, that could bring a change in leadership, along with top ticket items such as limits to lobbyist gifts, open records, and campaign finance reform.
Tim Mahoney, who won the Democratic primary in a Fayette County seat being vacated by Rep. Larry Roberts, the 51st Legislative District, said he would vote to oust DeWeese as leader. “I’m hoping I can find a group to stand up,” Mahoney said.
Alison Hawkes can be reached at 717-705-6330 or ahawkes@calkins-media.com.