Rendell opens re-election effort
HARRISBURG – Gov. Ed Rendell officially kicked off his re-election campaign this week, stopping in Harrisburg to a rallying cry from supporters of “Promises made, Promises kept.” After listing all his accomplishments – bettering the economy and the environment, progress in student reading and math scores, government cost cutting and getting more seniors on prescription drugs – he came to the one promise he has yet been able to keep.
That’s the one that was a cornerstone of his 2002 campaign, and the one he’s become most vulnerable on as he seeks to keep his seat for another four years: property tax relief.
And he laid blame at the foot of the Legislature – sort of.
“For the last 30 years, when a conference committee has unanimously voted out a bill, it has never failed to pass either chamber of the Legislature,” he said to a room of supporters in the Capitol rotunda. “I’m not going to conjecture why it didn’t pass. You saw that in the newspapers. But I am going to tell you this, when the Legislature comes back the first week in June we’re going to be at it again.”
For Rendell, 62, delivering on property tax relief is nowhere near certain, especially since the landscape of the Legislature has changed so dramatically and literally overnight.
The two Senate Republican leaders, who control that chamber, were voted out of office Tuesday and are sitting ducks, along with more than a dozen other lawmakers and 30 retirees.
Rendell may have a point in gesturing to the Legislature for the holdup on property tax reform. But will the sausage-making explanation matter to voters?
“The governor never promised in 2002, ‘I will pass tax reform as long as the Legislature goes along,” said Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College. “No matter what the Legislature has done in terms of balking at the last proposal, and no matter how he makes the case that he’s waiting, the public doesn’t really ask why you didn’t get it done. Often they just note that you didn’t get it done.”
Despite this one vulnerability, Rendell political prospects as he heads into election season look better than ever on the surface. His poll numbers are high, at 55 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll released last week. Compare that GOP opponent Lynn Swann who’s sunk to 33 percent, mainly because his candidacy hasn’t caught fire and voters say they don’t know much about him, according to Quinnipiac pollster Clay Richards.
Rendell’s campaign war chest is $13.6 million, about six times the size of Swann’s.
And he’s got the benefit of being a Democrat running in a year when voters are ticked off at Republicans because of the war in Iraq, lobbyist scandals in Washington, and a souring mood on President Bush.
Even Republicans around Harrisburg have taken note of the anti-Republican furor and are stressing the importance of saving seats. They lost one on Tuesday in a special election for a vacant Chester County seat created by the recent death of Sen. Robert Thompson, which is believed to be the first time a Democrat won there since before the Civil War.
The Pennsylvania Senate has five other open seats to fill this year.
“This is not going to be a great year for Republicans,” said Senate Republican Whip Jeff Piccola, who ran but dropped out of the gubernatorial GOP race earlier in the year. “It’s going to be tough. Everybody’s saying that and there’s some truth to that. We have got to go and fight in the trenches in those districts.”
Piccola, who spoke to reporters on behalf of Swann after Rendell’s event, said he believes the governor is to blame for the property tax failure because it’s too difficult an issue for the Legislature to handle on its own. He said Rendell should have come up with a detailed plan, instead of letting lawmakers sort it out amongst themselves.
“It takes a governor to lead on that issue and aggressively pursue a remedy that is going to be meaningful,” said Piccola. “The Legislature because of the diversity of the state and how property taxes impact differently on different parts of the state, it’s almost impossible for us to initiate a solution to the problem. Leadership is not saying, ‘I’m open to every suggestion.'”
As to the feeling that Swann has yet to offer a complete agenda, Piccola said he believes one is coming.
“He’ll get there. It’s a six-month campaign,” Piccola said.
Even with all the legislative upsets and a growing anti-incumbency attitude among voters, Rendell may very well escape those dynamics.
PACleanSweep founder Russ Diamond is running as an independent and may be able to influence the debate. But Diamond must gather a record 67,000 signatures to be placed on the ballot, and the last Keystone poll by Franklin & Marshall College put him at 3 percent.
Reformers have long lamented that Rendell’s role in signing the pay raise has been overlooked. But Borick said anti-pay raise fire is strongest in the bellies of central Pennsylvanians, who play a small role in swinging a statewide election.
Rendell himself has a comeback to questions about the pay raise. He points to Swann, who endorsed the two Senate Republican leaders in their losing campaigns: Senate Pro Tempore Bob Jubelirer and Senate Republican Leader David Brightbill.
“I am somewhat sustained by the fact that my opponent, who tries to wear the mantle of reform, supported Sen. Jubelirer and Sen. Brightbill,” Rendell said. “If he was a true reformer and that upset about the pay raise, why didn’t he support their opponents? It’s a mystery.”
Alison Hawkes can be reached at 717-705-6330 or ahawkes@calkins-media.com.