State House Democrats anticipate majority shift
HARRISBURG – Democrats are buzzing with excitement that for the first time in over a decade the Pennsylvania House could become Democratic, splitting up a longstanding Republican-controlled Legislature and changing dramatically the Capitol’s political environment. In some ways, it seems a strange time to consider this possibility. The GOP has actually grown its margins in recent years to among its highest majority since Eisenhower, cresting in 2005 at 110 members to the Democrats’ 93.
Right now, Democrats need to pick up eight seats to garner control of the House.
Not since the 2000 election, when Democrats and Republicans were evenly split, was the buzz so loud. But several factors are at play that make this year unique.
The Pennsylvania House has 43 open seats this year because of retirements and incumbent losses in the primary due to fallout from the legislative pay raise, with a disproportionate 26 seats from vacating Republicans.
Numerous southeastern districts have been tilting Democratic in voter registration. And Pennsylvania voters are matching a souring national mood over Republicans.
“If you would have asked me six months ago what I expected, I would have said it’ll take two (election) cycles to accomplish,” said Rep. Dan Frankel, an Allegheny County Democrat and chairman of the House Democratic Campaign Committee. “People truly believe there’s a possibility for a sea change in the Legislature this year.”
Gov. Ed Rendell, who if re-elected as the poll numbers suggest stands to gain the most with Democrats in power, pumped up union workers at a Labor Day gathering in Washington County.
“Best of all we have a chance to win back the Pennsylvania House of Representatives,” he said. “This is the year, this is our year … We can’t relax, we can’t for one minute, or take it for granted. We have to drive this all the way across the finish line.”
But Republican campaign officials remain sanguine, saying for every loss they take in the Southeast they expect to pick up two in the Southwest where conservative Democrats are starting to abandon the party and vote Republican, as in the case of Greene County’s surprising support for President Bush in 2004.
“I’m pretty confident we’ll be able to hold the majority,” said Al Bowman, spokesman for the House Republican Campaign Committee. “Eight would be a large number of seats … in any given year.”
Coattails
Eight may seem like a high number to obtain, but consider all the talk about the U.S. House turning Democratic and the magic number needed there is 15, said Tom Baldino, a political science professor at Wilkes University in Wilkes-Barre.
Still, Baldino said he believes the voter backlash against incumbents has largely subsided with the angriest areas of the state in the south central, northern tier, and southwest already booting out sitting lawmakers in the primary.
What’s possible, he said, is a coattails effect in which popular statewide candidates such as Rendell and U.S. Senate candidate Bob Casey Jr. carrying a high Democratic voter turnout that floats Democratic state House candidates to the top. That didn’t happen in 2002 when all the talk of Rendell’s coattails resulted in Republicans actually picking up two more seats. All things considered, he’s placing his bets on the status quo.
“It’s a safe bet, a boring bet,” Baldino said. “Sorry, but that’s what my gut tells me right now.”
House Democratic Whip Mike Veon of Beaver County is guessing a 50-50 chance.
Veon, who would be in line to become Majority Leader, said a Democratic House would likely make it easier for Rendell, if reelected, to accomplish his agenda. Expect attention on expanding property tax relief, affordable health care, affordable college educations, and expansion of prescription drug programs for the elderly, he said.
Veon also mentioned a lobbyist disclosure law – something Republicans are promising will be resolved before Election Day and the only measure the Legislature has moved on since the July 2005 pay raise- but could name no other reform measures of top priority.
“We’re open to any idea about reforming state government,” Veon said.
But Scott Migli, executive director of the Republican State Committee, countered that Democrats would bring a tax increase.
“Our taxes have increased under Rendell and all our fees have increased,” Migli said. “Those are things he can’t hide from and I would assume the party would follow right behind him.”
Veon said, “That’s simply not true.”
Targets
Democrats are targeting 22 seats, with a dozen of the best receiving financing and support from the party, according to Frankel. About eight or nine seats, mostly in the Southeast, are considered easier pickups because they have begun leaning Democratic in recent elections.
Among some of the targeted races are Pittsburgh’s 42nd District, where primary voters ousted Republican Thomas Stevenson, Montgomery County’s 130th where voters ousted Republican Dennis Leh, and the seat of retiring Republican Lynn Herman in the 77th District at State College.
Also, Democrats would like to bring down Pittsburgh Rep. Michael Diven, who defected to the GOP last year after feuding with Democratic leaders and Rep. Matt Wright from Bucks County’s 142nd District, who’s been in office 16 years but is vulnerable over his vote for the pay raise.
Frankel said Democrats are finding Republican candidates soft in areas of traditional strength.
“One of the interesting things is, everybody describes the ‘T’ in Pennsylvania as a desolate place for Democrats,” Frankel said. “We’re going to pick up the Lynn Herman seat. We feel very good about that.”
According to Bowman, Republicans are eyeing two seats in Westmoreland County, including the 57th held by Democrat Rep. Thomas Tangretti and the 58th held by Rep. Ted Harhai.
Also in the mix are Armstrong County’s 54th held by Rep. John Pallone and Fayette County’s 51st where Rep. Larry Roberts is retiring. They’re also hoping to pick up Washington County’s 46th District where Rep. Victor Lescovitz is retiring.
And in the Southeast, Republicans are looking to oust two vulnerable newcomers in Montgomery County, including Rep. Josh Shapiro in the 153rd and Mike Gerber in the 148th.
He also mentioned the possibility of ousting House Democratic Leader H. William DeWeese, a 30-year incumbent whose district spans Greene County and parts of Fayette and Washington. That would be, perhaps, a crown of glory for Republicans and a blow to Democratic power in Harrisburg.
The Republican opponent there is Greg Hopkins, a 34-year-old L.A. Avengers wide receiver.
“Our candidate down there has been working very hard and that’s obviously why we’re watching the seat very closely right now,” said Bowman. “Does that mean we’re there yet? I’m not sure, we’ll wait and see.”
Alison Hawkes can be reached at 717-705-6330 or ahawkes@calkins-media.com.