Upstaged by governor, financial analyst goes on to deliver report
The governor may have upstaged him but Robert L. Morgan went ahead anyway. Morgan was the original keynote speaker at Fay-Penn Economic Development Council’s annual dinner at Nemacolin Woodlands Resort and Spa in Farmington.
However, several days before the event, Gov. Ed Rendell notified Fay-Penn he would accept the group’s earlier invitation to speak at the dinner.
For Morgan, senior vice president and private client portfolio strategist from Janney Montgomery Scott LLC brokerage, it meant playing second fiddle.
Yet, the message he presented was just as positive as the governor, who announced an $800,000 state grant for Fayette County to develop its business park in South Union Township.
“In Pennsylvania and Fayette County, we have the opportunity to move the state forward by being more diversified and working with state and national decision makers,’ Morgan said.
Claiming that about 25 percent of his work is as an economist, Morgan reviewed positive trends in the national, state and local economies as well as predicting there will be no recession for some time to come. “We hear about the tensions in the world, about threats of inflation or recession. We only hear we (Pennsylvania) are one of the slowest growing economies in the nation or we have the oldest population. But I’m going to look at the silver lining in the cloud,’ he said.
The U.S., Morgan added, has been the “locomotive driving the worldwide economy during the last three to five years.
“From an economic growth standpoint, we are in the golden age of economic growth worldwide. It has been 5 percent this year and is seen to be about 5 percent next year as well. So, this is a great time for the worldwide economy.
“But some will say with growth comes inflation,’ Morgan said. The Federal Reserve, he added, has been diligent in keeping it low: about 2 percent this year and a 1.5 percent forecast for next year.
“Where does the U.S. fit into all of this? The reason we are the locomotive driving the worldwide economy is because we are such voracious consumers of goods. So, even if the U.S. economy is slowing it will still be the locomotive driving the worldwide economy.’
Attractive areas in that economy for overseas investment, Morgan said, are in Japan and Germany. Domestically, Morgan called the U.S. situation a “Goldilocks’ economy. “You remember the story of Goldilocks and the three bears? The porridge was too hot, too cold and then just right. So people want the economy to be neither too hot nor too cold. I feel the U.S. economy will be solid this year.’
Morgan predicted slower economic growth due in part to the housing downturn. “But corporate spending will go up and trade will improve to keep this economy healthy.’
In terms of American investment, Morgan recommended health care and large cap stocks.
On the state economy, Morgan said there has been a “lot of press about Pennsylvania’s reliance on undiversified industry. But it seems now that after all those years of layoffs we are catching up and finding shortages of highly skilled workers compared to other states.
“I think our own historically slow-growing economy is about to take off,’ he said.
The state economy now, Morgan added, contains more service and technology business and jobs. “So what is the outlook? We need to continually make the state a friendly place for taxes. We need to work with overseas governments to make sure their markets are fair to us. We need to come up with some immigration laws in Washington so we can find skilled workers to fill jobs. China’s currency must float freely and education is the long-term answer.’
Morgan is a frequent author and lecturer on a variety of financial matters, and has been featured on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange, Squawk Box, Squawk on the Street, Morning Call, Power Lunch, Closing Bell, Kudlow & Co., and Bullseye. Morgan has also made appearances on Bloomberg TV’s Morning Call and Open Exchange.
He is a weekly guest on NBC’s WGAL-TV 8 in Lancaster. Additionally, Morgan has been published in the Philadelphia Business Journal, the Wall Street Transcript, the Harrisburg Patriot News, the York Daily Record and the Lancaster Intelligencer Journal. Morgan is a resident of Lancaster. He received his bachelor of science degree in 1983 and his master of business administration degree from Vanderbilt University in 1984. He is a member of the CFA Institute of America. A former lieutenant in the U.S. Navy, he served as a junior officer aboard the USS Woodrow Wilson from 1984 to 1989.