Football experts often wrong
By Dutch Wydo As an NFL fan, this scenario has probably happened to you too many times to count.
Each season, you invest your time and tune into NFL games on Sunday and follow that up by watching Monday Night Football. Once Tuesday arrives, you are anxious to read the papers, tune into ESPN, or watch your local sports broadcast to see what the ?experts? are saying about the weekend that was.
It doesn?t take too long to surf through the channels or flip through the papers to find reporters, analysts, writers, and ?experts,? either ripping a certain team for a loss that took place on national television, or elevating the winning team to championship level status after a big win. (As I write this, Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun times is hammering the Green Bay Packers for their Monday Night loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Mariotti feels the Packers are in deep trouble and have many issues.)
All of this is fine, until about four weeks later and the teams have gone in opposite directions of what you were told to expect. As a fan, you sit there, wondering what happened to that team? At the end of the day, the experts will have you believe that their incorrect projections as nothing more than, ?This is the NFL, and anything can happen.?
That?s not good enough for me. And it shouldn?t be good enough for you, either.
One of the reasons these ?experts? can lead you down the wrong road with their weekly forecasts is their misuse of stats or downright refusal to use them. One very common example of such journalistic ignorance is when a broadcaster or writer points to ?overall rushing yards? as the determining factor in a game.
They will say or write that Team A won because it ran the ball a lot, even if a closer inspection of the game shows that Team A came out throwing early and often. After Team A gained a comfortable lead, perhaps then it frequently went to its ground assault to eat clock. Meanwhile, Team B was unable to gain much yardage on the ground because it were too busy trying to pass the ball in an effort to make up for its early double-digit deficit.
The rushing yards and rushing attempts had very little to do with Team A’s victory. Those late rushing statistics were simply a strategy employed by Team A after its passing game blew the contest open.
But try telling that to many journalists that stubbornly continue to point to overall rushing yards or rushing attempts as the key to the game.
Just because they often misuse a stat, it doesn?t mean that you have to.
Yards-per-play differential is a far more telling stat, yet it doesn?t get much press. This statistic is simply calculating a team’s average offensive yards per play minus their average defensive yards per play.
After (or even during) a football game, visit any sports website and click on the box score of any given game, and you will see the average gain per play.
Here is why it is important: The teams with the strongest yards-per-play differential, tend to float to the top of the league by the end of the regular season.
The following were the top teams in yards-per-play differential by the end of the 2008 season.
Steelers +.9
Eagles +.8
Panthers +.8
Chargers +.6
Cowboys +.6
Cardinals +.5
Giants +.5
Ravens +.4
As you can see, the cream rose to the top by the end of the season. Of the top 8, only Dallas failed to make the playoffs. This statistic is great illustration of the strength of an NFL team.
Here the current yards-per-play differential rankings heading into Week Five.
Colts = +2.5
Broncos = +1.7
Saints = +1.4
Giants = +1.3
Eagles = +1.3
Steelers = +.9
Packers = +.8
Ravens = +.8
Cowboys = +.6
Redskins = +.5
49ers = +.5
Chargers = +.4
Jets = +.3
Bears = +.3
Titans = +.2
Bills = +.1
Jaguars = -.1
Vikings = -.2
Texans = -2
Patriots = .3
Falcons = -.4
Cardinals = -.4
Bengals = -.4
Panthers = -.8
Seahawks = -1.0
Dolphins = -1.1
Rams = -1.2
Chiefs = -1.3
Bucs = -1.4
Raiders = -1.4
Browns = -1.5
Lions = -1.6
Let’s rewind to the Monday Night Football game between the Packers and the Vikings. Perception after that game is that the Vikings are an awesome team that really took it to the Packers. As I mentioned before, Jay Mariotti nearly counted out the Packers this week on ESPN’s Tuesday afternoon ?Around the Horn? program.
But let?s take a look at what really is going on.
In that fateful game, the Packers out-gained the Vikings 6.8 to 5.4 in yards per play. This was done on the road and in a very hostile environment. That’s a +1.4 differential in Green Bay’s favor.
Furthermore, on the season, the Packers have accumulated a +.9 yards-per-play differential. The Vikings stand at a very mediocre -.2, even though they played the awful Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns (currently the bottom two teams in that same statistic). Minnesota, in spite of its 4-0 record, is not playing efficient football. The Vikings’ schedule is about to heat up and they could have a humbling experience when they come to Heinz Field in a few weeks if they don?t improve.
Meanwhile the Packers yards-per-play differential indicates that they could soon go on a winning streak. The Packers lost the game Monday night because they turned the ball over on the road. They made mistakes. But if they clean up that up and get healthy, things might be different the next time.
The NFL can be a hard game to figure if you simply base your opinions on what you perceive is happening on the field. Las Vegas has built castles by accepting bets from sports fans that are basing their wagers around their perceptions, or perhaps those of some writer, reporter, analyst or ?expert.?
But don?t let your eyes (or anyone else’s) fool you. After watching a game, check the box scores and see what team averaged a higher yards per play. On Tuesdays, check the yards per play differential rankings. That way, you won?t be surprised four weeks later when some supposedly ?championship caliber? team goes into the tank.
Dutch Wydo hosts a sports talk show Saturday mornings from 9AM-10AM on WMBS-AM 590.