Local officials analyze Trump promise to bring back coal jobs
ArcelorMittal in Monessen, a coke plant pictured in this file photo from March, referred the Herald-Standard to ArcelorMittal Corporate Communications' Nov. 10 statement supporting President-elect Donald Trump's domestic steel industry agenda. Trump's win has been analyzed as a victory for the coal and oil industries as well due to his vocal support of both.
A Consol mine in Greene County. (Photo courtesy of Consol Energy)
Dave Baer knows firsthand the hard times many local coal miners have experienced in recent years.
Baer was one of 265 workers at Emerald Mine in Waynesburg laid off last November by Alpha Natural Resources, and since April, he’s been a peer counselor at Greene CareerLink, helping facilitate out-of-work miners, some former coworkers, getting back on their feet as much as possible.
“They come in just about every day,” Baer said.
Some have landed at PennDOT or the Greene County Prison, but Baer said it hasn’t been an easy transition for the vast majority of those laid off at Emerald Mine.
“From making $100,000 a year to $20,000-30,000 a year, it’s pretty tough,” Baer said. “They have to drain down their 401ks. It’s a culture shock, a $70,000 pay cut.”
In 2015, U.S. coal production, consumption and employment fell by more than 10 percent, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which also reported that the number of employees in U.S. coal mines was the lowest since EIA began collecting data in 1978.
Mountaintop removal, surface mining and other industry approaches have necessitated fewer coal workers since the late 20th century.
Can coal make a comeback? It will if President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his campaign promise to voters throughout Appalachia to make that comeback happen.
“A lot of (laid off miners) have high hopes it will come back,” Baer said. “It’s a question of, can you wait it out?”
Voters didn’t have to wait to make a difference on Nov. 8, when Fayette, Greene, Washington and Westmoreland counties voted decisively for Trump. Baer said Trump’s pro-coal stance “most definitely” attracted some voters to him, and Trump won all 44 precincts in Greene County.
But Trump has also promised to ease regulations on natural gas drilling, another popular stance in southwestern Pennsylvania. Trump gave the keynote address at the annual Shale Insight conference in Pittsburgh in September, saying he would lift drilling restrictions offshore and on federal lands, according to StateImpact.
Experts say market forces seem poised to dictate that Trump’s promises that his administration will significantly bolster both the coal and shale industries will go unfulfilled, especially since fewer regulations on shale gas drilling could allow that industry to surge further and contribute even more to coal’s decline. Environmentalists and others also lament Trump’s history of denying the reality of climate change.
”How are you going to bring back coal?”
Yet Trump recognized the economic reality of Pennsylvania’s southwestern corner, ruing the area’s industrial decline and the financial struggles waged in its wake.
While median household incomes have increased by a greater percentage in Fayette, Greene, Washington and Westmoreland counties than the rest of the U.S. since 2000 according to the U.S. Census Bureau, poverty levels stayed virtually the same or rose in each of these four counties, indicating a higher level of income inequality that exacerbated the impact from waning coal and manufacturing industries.
“Hillary Clinton really didn’t talk about economic issues too much,” said Dr. Melanie Blumberg, campus director of the American Democracy Project at California University of Pennsylvania.
But Trump did, and people listened.
Uniontown community volunteer Tina Allen realizes the coal industry’s outlook is grim but wants to at least preserve what is still left of the industry since her husband is a miner at the Cumberland Mine in Kirby.
“He said we can make clean coal,” Allen said of Trump, who she voted for.
Experts have noted that coal when burned is never fully clean, since burning coal produces toxic waste in the form of coal ash. Coal ash contains contaminants like mercury, cadmium and arsenic, which can pollute waterways, groundwater, drinking water and the air, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Coal would be cleaner in carbon capture and storage systems, but those have proven too costly to be used on a wide economic scale.
The mercury and carbon dioxide emitted by coal-fired power plants can also contribute to climate change.
Baer predicts an uptick for coal in Greene County in the next several years as demand cyclically rises again.
And Greene County Commissioner Blair Zimmerman believes market trends will shape coal’s future more than imposed or rolled back federal regulations.
“I don’t think that it was going to be the end of the coal industry whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton got in,” said Zimmerman, who supported Clinton.
Zimmerman was a coal miner for 40 years and doesn’t think Trump’s promises pass muster.
“Mr. Trump said he was going to bring back coal,” Zimmerman noted. “My question to him is, how are you going to bring back coal to mines that are closed? … When coal is mined, it’s gone.”
Fayette County Commissioner Vince Vicites is more sanguine about coal’s outlook. Vicites said he worked for Mepco prior to his second stint as commissioner and criticized what he said was federal over-regulation of energy businesses, which he said resulted in FirstEnergy closing Hatfield’s Ferry Power Station in 2013.
“I think we can bring back one or two mines to Fayette County,” Vicites said, adding that he thought gas and coal can coexist since “nothing can totally replace coal.”
”Game-changer”
But hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have uncovered cleaner-burning natural gas that has taken markets away from the coal industry in inter-fuel competition.
“The first (gas) well in Washington County was drilled in 2003,” Washington County Commissioner Larry Maggi said. “It’s been a game-changer for our county.”
Maggi said Marcellus shale drilling has changed the dynamics of his county’s economy. The numbers support his case.
Washington County received $5.688 million in shale impact fees for 2015, more than any other county in the state. Shale impact fees have paid for a wide array of recent local infrastructure projects, including a bridge in German Township and a new plow truck for Fayette City.
And Maggi says there’s plenty more where that came from.
“There’s over 150 years of energy in Marcellus shale,” Maggi said. “And under that, there’s Utica shale.”
Both Maggi and Vicites predict that state Department of Environmental Protection regulations will have a more direct impact on the future of local shale drilling.
“The Trump administration could affect energy on federal public lands,” said Bobby Magill, senior science writer for Climate Central. “But it’s unclear how much he could do to spur additional development. Most natural gas in the country is on private land.”
Shale drilling has triggered its own gamut of environmental concerns, since according to the nonprofit Union of Concerned Scientists, drilling and extraction of natural gas from wells and its transportation in pipelines results in methane leakage. Exposure to elevated levels hazardous air pollutants from burning natural gas can lead to adverse health outcomes, including respiratory symptoms, cardiovascular disease, and cancer, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.
”The stakes are high”
Regardless, Magill says “the stakes are high” for whatever Trump decides to do next with regard to energy and the environment. Magill noted that Trump appointed a climate change skeptic, Myron Ebell, to lead his EPA transition team. Trump told the New York Times Tuesday that he has an “open mind” on whether America might ignore or withdraw the U.S. from an international accord to combat global warming.
“The bottom line is a lot of speculation and prognostication,” Magill said.
In the meantime, according to Baer, former miners in Greene County struggling with their job situation will continue to lean on support from the United Mine Workers Union of America, the Corner Cupboard Food Bank and each other.
“They all need to work together — coal, natural gas, greener alternatives,” said German Township Supervisor L.C. Otto, whose township has benefited from comparatively high shale impact fees relative to the rest of Fayette County in recent years.
Lots of local residents will be paying attention to whether the Trump administration can defy current market trends in his commitment to bolstering coal.
“I hope he can do it,” Vicites said.