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First frosts nearing, promising winter weather

By Olivia Serdy for The 3 min read
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It’s been fairly typical fall weather — sweaters needed in the morning with chilly temperatures, and shed by the afternoon when the sun rises high. Warmer days in the 80s left summer lingering long into September and October.

But Mother Nature’s reminder that colder days are forthcoming is imminent — frost is right around the corner.

Though some in varying elevations have already experienced their first frost, various sources note that it’s around this very weekend that the first frost tends to settle in our region.

“Typically, frost can occur when the temperature falls below 36 degrees, especially in rural areas. It is a localized phenomena and can be quite variable across a small area,” according to officials with the National Weather Service (NWS).

“Frost becomes more widespread when the temperature falls below 32 degrees with some freeze possible,” they continued.

Though the NWS doesn’t regularly keep track of frost occurrences, they do note when the temperatures start dipping to the freeze mark. According to their climatological data map, our region varies between October 10 and 20, in terms of when we’ll see the temperatures drop and the chance of frost rise.

It won’t be too long after those first couple frosts that the next level occurs. NWS indicates that a hard freeze is possible when temperatures fall below 28 degrees, which according to their climate data maps will be between Oct. 11 and Nov. 1.

Though the NWS can narrow down the timespan during which we’ll likely see the frosty ground outdoors, the Old Farmer’s Almanac offers several factors to consider when keeping an eye on that inevitable first frost, the first of which is simply noting the day-time temperature.

“How warm was it during the day? If the temperature reached 75 degrees (in the East or North) or 80 degrees (in the desert Southwest), the chance of the mercury falling below 32 degrees at night is slim,” The Old Farmer’s Almanac officials noted in a report.

Other factors are how windy and cloudy the day is — ironically, the windy, cloudy days will likely stave off a frost. Instead, it’s the still, unbreezy nights that allow cool air to pool and call for a frost. And the clouds actually only serve to slow the “radiational cooling” and delay a frost.

“What is the dew point? As a rule of thumb, don’t worry about a frost if the dew point is above 45 degrees on the evening weather report,” the Almanac states, explaining that the dew point is the temperature at which water vapor condenses.

In terms of what might see some damage from the upcoming frost, the Almanac says it really comes down to where your plants are and your landscaping.

“Gardens on slopes or high ground often survive when the coldest air puddles down into the valleys and hollows,” they said. “Plants that are close to the ground have a better chance of being protected by the warmth of the earth or the foliage of neighboring plants.”

Locally, lower elevations might not see frost in the next several days, but according to the NWS, higher elevations may very well see one tonight into tomorrow, as temperatures drop to about 35.

For whenever that frost may strike (for the first time, or once again), make sure potted plants are brought indoors if you hope to keep them a bit longer, but know that snowy winter weather isn’t all that far off.

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