Oct 16, 2002 3 min read

In one of his latest commercials, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ed Rendell smiles into the camera to set the record straight. Mr. Rendell says he won’t raise taxes. For a candidate to say otherwise is certain political suicide. In fact both Mr. Rendell and Republican candidate Mike Fisher hint they will actually lower taxes. That’s music voters love to hear. But is it possible?

In the current economic client, it’s not only doubtful, it’s misleading. Pennsylvania heavily tapped into its Rainy Day, hiked cigarette taxes and imposed an additional landfill tipping fee to get through this year’s fiscal crunch. The new governor will be facing similar budget deficits without the Rainy Day cushion while under pressure to trim corporate taxes and shoulder more of the costs for educating public school children.

Both Fisher and Rendell have pledged to immediately work to lower property taxes that fund schools. But since this is a tax enacted by local school districts, the state will need to devise a way to make up the shortage.

And if one listens to the polls, such as the IssuesPA poll conducted by Millersville University’s Center for Opinion Research, no one wants to pay higher taxes on anything. The IssuesPA poll found 70 percent want an overhaul of local taxes but were adamantly opposed to raising income or sales tax.

Instead, they preferred to get additional revenue from gambling and cigarette taxes. That is what the candidates are selling – Fisher with vague ideas and Rendell with expanded gambling such as slots at the race tracks, perhaps keno and riverboat casinos.

If just half of the $6.8 billion revenue raised through school property taxes were to be replaced, Pennsylvania would need to tax slots at 446 percent or hike cigarettes another $4.93 a pack, according to IssuesPA. All of it would need to go for education. Not one dime would pay for expanded health coverage, prescription drugs for the elderly or shore up the lottery – other campaign promises that will most likely evaporate.

Neither Rendell nor Fisher want to talk about the bleak economic forecast for Pennsylvania, a state that took four years to rebound from the 1990-91 national recession that lasted just nine months. State revenue will not grow at the necessary pace to sustain government spending. This leaves just three choices: cut programs, raise taxes or both.

The candidates would rather not talk about this as no one on the campaign trail wants to be perceived as holding pessimistic views. But voters need to ask how well they are served by falling for rosy forecasts where everyone will pay less in taxes and benefit from more programs. This is not reality.