Fay-Penn cautioned
We think it’s a tad premature for the Fay-Penn Economic Development Council to declare that so much progress has been made on the job-creation front that the nonprofit agency now needs to focus on education/work force development. While the two are obviously linked, many facts – starting with Fayette’s November unemployment rate of 6.5 percent, 65th among Pennsylvania’s 67 counties – seem to undermine the change of emphasis. At minimum, it’s a classic chicken-versus-egg argument: Does the creation of a job lead to the hiring of someone to fill it, or does having a person with the needed skills lead to the creation of a job? We tend to believe it’s more of the former than the latter.
The methodology Fay-Penn uses to substantiate its claim that the county has 2,500 jobs waiting to be filled is built on shaky statistical ground. It conducted a survey of 50 local employers, asking what their employment needs will be. The results are estimates at best, perhaps made under a rosy-scenario pretense. What business leader, when asked, doesn’t have a positive outlook on its future? Few, if any, of them, could be expected to say they don’t plan to grow or expand.
If anyone needs further proof of the weakness of the methodology, look no further than one big adjustment already made.
An anticipated 400 new jobs in the hospitality industry from the original survey, attributed to Nemacolin Woodlands Resort’s pursuit of a state slots license, have already been deleted because of that company’s pullout from the licensing process, according to Fay-Penn official Michael W. Krajovic.
The remaining 600 professional and 1,200 labor jobs could be just as nebulous, in the sense of whether they actually do or will exist.
Given the outmigration that has beset Fayette for decades, it’s hard to imagine that $40,000- to $50,000-a-year jobs now go begging in any field because, in the words of Krantz, “Employers can’t find the people to fill them.”
Readers who’ve posted comments to that story on our Web site say things like, “I, too, would like to see a list of companies with positions available before believing that comment,” and, “If the jobs do exist, why weren’t they mentioned along with an address to send a resume to?”
Those are legitimate questions, ones that could easily be answered with a listing of real jobs and what they pay.
Mere projections, like those that form the backbone of this study, aren’t firm enough to declare victory, particularly on something as important as meaningful job creation. From what we see, that battle’s not over, by far.
While we can all join Fay-Penn in hoping for such explosive job growth, and in accepting that the county’s work force needs better skills and education, it’s also prudent to keep in mind one old adage when digesting this tally: Don’t count your chickens (or your jobs) before they hatch.