Afghanistan
Karzai’s unsavory supporters It is doubtful that anyone in authority would say so publicly, but the U.S. probably would not be heartbroken if Hamid Karzai, our man in Kabul, lost his bid for reelection as president of Afghanistan.
The U.S. installed Karzai – or, more particularly, saw that he was installed – as Afghanistan’s leader after the Taliban were ousted in 2001. He won election in his own right in 2005 in an election in which the U.S. presence figured heavily.
Unfortunately, his regime is seen as corrupt and ineffective. Afghanis tell Western reporters they have seen little in the way of job and security benefits from his government and they wonder what happened to all the foreign aid they were supposed to be getting.
The election is Thursday and the preliminary results are not expected for two more days. The turnout if problematic because of threats from the Taliban – although a Taliban spokesman helpfully told the Associated Press that a suicide bombing Tuesday was part of “routine operations” and unconnected to the elections.
The political legitimacy of the new president, whether it is Karzai or one of the 39 others running for the office, depends heavily on the size of the turnout that elects him.
Karzai has done almost no public campaigning, instead relying on a series of alliances with regional powerbrokers, including several unsavory warlords and militia commanders. One of his most influential supporters – and one who could expect to play a key role in a Karzai government – is Gen. Absurrashid Dostum, who is accused of a litany of human rights abuses including letting hundreds of Taliban and al Qaeda prisoners suffocate in shipping containers.
Karzai’s chief rival is former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah, who has conducted an aggressive campaign, holding rallies across the nation. Polls in Afghanistan have to be taken with a grain of salt, but such polls as there are show Karzai leading but Abdullah closing fast. If there is no clear majority, the top two candidates face off again in a runoff election Oct. 1.
If there is a candidate the U.S. would privately like to see win, it is Ashraf Ghani, U.S.-educated, a former World Bank official, former finance minister and widely held to be incorruptible. He, too, is running hard – one of his campaign advisers is James Carville – and is the candidate the U.S. would be most comfortable working with for the next five years. Unfortunately, he is a distant third in the polls, but, then again, the polls are suspect.
Scripps Howard News Service