Primary runoff elections a bad idea for Pennsylvania
In May 2022, state Sen. Doug Mastriano secured the Republican nomination for governor with 44% of the vote, beating by more than 2-to-1 his closest challenger, former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta.
It was an impressive victory for Mastriano, but the fact that he received 44% of the vote means that 56% of GOP voters preferred another candidate, whether it was Barletta, former U.S. attorney Bill McSwain, former U.S. Rep. Melissa Hart or another candidate in the crowded field. Mastriano’s primary win was about as good as it got for his campaign, since he was clobbered by Josh Shapiro in the general election.
Two Republican state senators have introduced a measure that would institute primary runoff elections to ensure that whatever candidate advances to the general election is backed by at least half-plus-one of his or her party. While denying that the runoff proposal has anything to do with Mastriano, one of the bill’s co-sponsors, Lancaster’s Ryan Aument, believes that runoffs would produce a “better choice,” bring candidates who are “broadly supported” before voters and generate more enthusiasm among the electorate.
There is an argument to be made for runoff elections. A candidate would, at least in theory, have more of a mandate if they secured majority support, whether in a primary or general election. But the arguments against runoffs are stronger.
First, runoff elections mean that voters would have to head back to the polls again, not too long after they’ve already cast their ballots. And runoff elections tend to have lower turnout than the main contest. The organization Fair Vote looked at runoff elections between 1994 and 2022 in the states that have them and found that 96% of the time, turnout fell from the primary election to the runoff, sometimes by as much as 40%. And even if a runoff election had been in place last year, it seems likely that Mastriano would have won that, too — the 56% of Republicans who did not vote for him in the primary were almost certainly not going to coalesce entirely behind an alternative candidate. A firebrand is what GOP voters seemed to want in 2022, rather than a centrist who might have been more palatable to general election voters.
A better option would be adopting some form of ranked-choice voting. In that system, each voter would rank candidates in order of preference. If a candidate secures a majority of first-choice votes, they win outright. However, if there is not a majority first-choice candidate, the second-choice votes of the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes are distributed to other candidates until a candidate receives a majority. That would be more fair, and less time-consuming, than holding a runoff election.
There are now 10 states that have primary runoff elections, most in the South. Pennsylvania should not join their ranks.