Don’t bank on Wildcats in NCAA tournament
I know what most of you are thinking. You’re sitting there, looking at your NCAA basketball tournament brackets, and saying to yourselves, “I know the Wildcats are going to win it all … I just don’t know which ones, the ones from Kentucky or the ones from Arizona.”
Well, fortunately for you, I’m here to help you solve this dilemma.
The answer is: neither.
That’s right, you heard correctly … the winner of the NCAA men’s tournament will not be Kentucky, nor will it be Arizona. In fact, these two favorites might not even get to New Orleans for the Final Four.
Will they, and if not, who will? Well, you’ll have to read on for those answers.
First we have to delve right into the Midwest, because I know all you Pittsburgh fans are probably out there saying “What about the Panthers, huh?”
So what about those Panthers?
Well, they have the capability to beat Kentucky. In fact, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that they could win the whole darn shootin’ match.
Then again, I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Pitt lost in the first round to Wagner, especially recalling the recent Villanova game the Panthers played.
In that contest, Pitt held a double-digit lead most of the game against the undermanned Wildcats, who had several key players out due to suspensions. The lead was still 10 with under two minutes to play when the Panthers almost imploded.
The book on what to do when you have a lead late in a game goes something like this: take care of the basketball, make your free throws and keep the clock running.
The Panthers apparently had the book upside down because they turned the ball over, missed just about every clutch free throw they took, and kept fouling Villanova even when it was taking wild 3-pointers! They still managed to hang on for a two-point win.
I congratulate Pitt and Ben Howland on a fine season, and it was good to see them win the Big East tournament, because they worked hard after coming close the past two seasons, and really deserved it.
But, as far as this tournament goes, I can’t get that Villanova, nor the close losses to Syracuse and Notre Dame, out of my head. Even Pitt’s best foul shooter, Donatas Zavackas at 81.1 percent, gagged when the pressure was on against Georgetown, missing twice in the final seconds, which gave the Hoyas a chance to win the game. Pitt hung on there, too, but any team that can keep it close with the Panthers – and that includes Wagner, which is a better team than I suspect most of you realize – has a good shot to beat them.
I think Pitt will survive against Wagner, then lose to the winner of the Indiana-Alabama game. (And please, Panther fans, at least wait until the games are over before you start emailing your complaints to me.)
So if Pitt gets knocked out early, Kentucky should cruise, right?
I have to admit, these Wildcats are on a roll. During their current 23-game winning streak, they beat all but seven teams by double digits, and only two of those games were decided by five points or less.
That isn’t necessarily a good thing. Kentucky could roll through the tournament, but most likely they’ll have to win at least one or two close games. Call it a hunch or whatever, I just feel things have been going almost too good for the Wildcats. If it gets by Oregon, I think Utah, with its deliberate pace, can give Kentucky a ton of trouble in the second round.
If Kentucky and Pitt both do get through to the Elite Eight, I think a confident Panther team could upset the Wildcats in the regional final. The Hoosiers and Crimson Tide are capable of stunning Tubby Smith’s crew, too.
It won’t be the cakewalk everyone thinks it will be, but when it’s all said and done, I will go with Kentucky to get out of the bracket, and then fall to the winner of the West region at the Final Four.
That would be Duke.
The West is a very tough bracket, but on the Blue Devils’ side, I foresee them beating Colorado State, Creighton and Arizona State, which will upend Memphis and Kansas in the first two rounds.
Arizona will have a more difficult time in the top half. Gonzaga in the second round won’t be easy, and Notre Dame or Illinois could knock them off. (For those who don’t remember, the Fighting Irish won three straight games against top 10 teams early in the season, beating Marquette at home and Maryland and Texas on the road, though they have lost six of their last 10).
Duke would beat any of those teams in the regional final, and then, in another classic Duke-Kentucky battle, the Blue Devils will pull the upset.
Down in the South, Maryland, LSU and Connecticut are all dangerous teams, but I still see Florida and Texas going out to the final. The Gators did lose their last three, but is falling to Georgia, Kentucky and LSU that much of a sin? Revitalized by the tournament, I see them winning three before falling to the Longhorns.
In the East, I caught Oklahoma on TV a couple times this year and was very impressed. Keep an eye on Louisville, though, even though the Cardinals aren’t at full strength. If Pitino’s boys can slip past the Sooners, then they can start making plans for New Orleans.
The bottom of the East bracket is extremely tough. Out of the eight teams there, only East Tennessee State isn’t a threat. Wake Forest, Syracuse, Oklahoma State, St. Joseph’s, Auburn, Penn and even Manhattan are capable of winning two or three games.
My advice is don’t jump on the Orangemen’s bandwagon as everyone else seems to be doing, but take a shot at St. Joseph’s going out three games before getting stampeded by the Sooners in the regional final.
That means it’s Kentucky, Duke, Texas and Oklahoma in the Final Four.
The final: Oklahoma 78, Duke 75.
So now you know.
Rob Burchianti is assistant sports editor of the Herald-Standard and can be reached at rvburchianti@hotmail.com.