AFC opponents Colts and Patriots are attractive opposites
There will be time for analysis and evaluation of all the subplots and primaries in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, but at its root, this is a game that will pit strength against strength. Namely, the New England Patriots’ bend-but-don’t-break defense against the Indianapolis Colts’ light-up-the-scoreboard offense.
For the fourth straight season, the Indianapolis offense – this year without running back Edgerrin James but with rookie back Joseph Addai – finished third in the NFL in total offense, averaging 379.4 yards per game. It also tied for second in the league in points per game, at 26.7.
Ironically, it was the Indy defense that may have impacted the offense’s usual success. The Colts’ scoring was down slightly from last year (in 2005, they averaged 32.6 points a game), and the defense’s difficulty in stopping the run may have been to blame.
Running the ball always eats up time, potentially giving Peyton Manning fewer chances to go to work on the field.
Contrast Indianapolis’ strength with that of the Patriots. Though the Pats aren’t always top-five in total yards allowed, they have been one of the three stingiest scoring defenses in the league in three of the last four years. And coach Bill Belichick always says that one stat matters more than any other when talking about defense: points.
This season, New England allowed a franchise-low 14.8 points per game, which was second to Baltimore (12.6).
Last week, CBS NFL analysts Phil Simms and Dan Dierdorf discussed the AFC divisional matchup of Indy and Baltimore. Though the Ravens’ defense has the bigger names and got more attention, the words of Dierdorf still hold true when it comes to this weekend’s game.
“I think you get more consistency out of a great defense,” he said. “It’s easier to play defense consistently every week than offense consistently every week.”
Added Simms: “If one thing goes wrong on offense, it disrupts everything. Very few teams have done it (win a Super Bowl) the way Indianapolis is trying to do it – by building through the quarterback and putting pressure on the offense.”
That’s easy to see in the results of each team this season. In the Colts’ first loss of the season, to Dallas, the team had four turnovers, and Peyton Manning completed just over half of his passes (his completion mark for the season was 65 percent). In the team’s loss to Tennessee, Manning had two more interceptions, meaning that four of the nine picks he threw this season came in two of Indianapolis’ losses.
Against the Jaguars, his completion percentage again was 50 percent, Manning was intercepted, and the Colts were held to 34 yards rushing.
It holds true for the New England offense, as well. In its four losses, the team gave the ball away 10 times – five times against the Colts in Week Nine, twice against the Jets a week later, and three times in its shutout loss in Miami last month. There were no turnovers in the game-three loss to Denver.
With two Pro Bowl receivers in Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne at his disposal, as well as Addai and tight end Dallas Clark, Manning and the Colts were the NFL’s best team on third down, converting more than 56 percent of the time.
Again, though, New England can counter. The Pats were among the league leaders in stopping teams on third down, successful in nearly two-thirds of its opportunities.
And it’s much the same in the red zone.
Indianapolis was second to San Diego in offensive success inside the 20. In a league-high 62 red-zone possessions, it had 41 touchdowns (plus 16 field goals).
The Patriots, meanwhile, allowed just 35 trips into the red zone – just 2.2 chances per game – with teams coming away with a touchdown 12 times.
In their first playoff game, against New York, New England was impressive in the red area, as Belichick calls it. The Jets were inside the Pats’ 20 three times – once as close as the three-yard line – and all three times settled for field goals.
Said Jets quarterback Chad Pennington, “There’s a reason why the Patriots set a franchise record for scoring in a season. The reason is they have the ability to play defense in the red zone and still stop the run with their front seven. That’s why they’re so good. They can take their front seven, stop the run, and then play all their combo coverages and defend down there.”
Pennington’s frustration is understood when you realize that of the 10 touchdown passes New England allowed during the regular season, he had three.
Six of the 10 scoring throws came in the Pats’ four losses.
So which strength will win?
“Defenses, if they’re down one week, can still get it done for you,” noted Simms. “It’s not always like that for offenses.”
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service)