Rob on the Net
Payton more likely to punch Super Bowl ticket than Peyton (Following is another edition of Rob on the Net, Volume II, No. 2, a column exclusively for those of you who read the Herald-Standard on the Internet.)
There have been plenty of story lines out there for what are a pair of intriguing match-ups in the NFC and AFC championship games.
One that surprisingly hasn’t been talked about much, though, is that if the Bears defeat the Saints and the Patriots knock off the Colts, you’ll have a rematch of the 1986 Super Bowl.
That was New England’s first appearance in the big game, and one it wishes it could forget as the Bears, also playing in their first Super Bowl, tore the Patriots to shreds, 46-10.
That Chicago team, which featured such players as Walter Payton, Jim McMahon, Mike Singletary and William “The Refrigerator” Perry, along with coach “Iron” Mike Ditka, would also destroy any of the teams left in this year’s pool.
Yes, these look to be two interesting games, but when you scan the overall picture, you see four good teams, but no great team.
The Patriots still have several players from the group that won three of the past five Super Bowls, but this squad isn’t on the same level as those teams.
The Colts were better last year, when they were stunned by the Steelers.
The Saints might have the best offense in the NFL, but, as the Eagles showed, their defense can cough up some big plays.
The Bears have the most inconsistent quarterback of the four teams left, and their defense sputtered down the stretch and couldn’t stop the Seahawks’ ground game last week.
So it’s not a great crop, but someone has to win it all. Who will it be?
That will come later. We’ll just leave you with who’ll get to the Super Bowl for now.
New Orleans (+21/2) at Chicago
Which Rex Grossman will show up this week for the Bears? The one who bumbled his way through the latter part of the regular season to the point where he almost lost his starting job, or the one that looked fairly poised and made some huge plays against Seattle last week?
The line has dropped a half point since opening at 3, so it seems bettors aren’t banking on another good Grossman performance.
This Chicago team is hard to get a handle on. It played great defense early in the season, faded down the stretch, and was so-so against the Seahawks, although it did come up with some key turnovers.
The Bears want to run first, as most power teams do, and how well they do will be one of the keys to the game. The Saints ranked 23rd in the NFL against the run at 128.9 yards per game during the regular season and coughed up 123 more against the Eagles last week.
If Chicago can run well enough to keep pressure off Grossman, that will give the much-maligned QB a little more time to make some plays.
But if the Bears want to win, they’ll have to find a way to slow down the Saints’ many weapons, which include quarterback Drew Brees, running backs Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, and wide receiver Marques Colston. Philadelphia kept Brees in check for most of the game, but weren’t nearly as successful at controlling McAllister and Bush.
Saints coach Sean Payton has done an outstanding job this season, and he’s shown to be very creative with his offense.
The forecast is calling for cold weather and possibly snow, which helps Chicago, and could take a few options away from Payton’s playbook. The Saints aren’t used to playing in bad weather, so the worse it is, the better the Bears’ chances.
This is a tough one to call. Lovie Smith has done a fine job at Chicago, but Payton seems to have that golden touch this year, so the benefit of the doubt goes to him.
Saints 27, Bears 17
New England (+31/2) at Indianapolis
A lot of people out there seem to think this is the year for the Colts, that the stars are aligned right for them to finally break through, and they did fool yours truly last week when they stood toe to toe with the very physical Ravens.
Meanwhile, the Patriots gutted out a win at San Diego that, admittedly, the Chargers helped hand them. That’s New England, though. You give a Bill Belichick team the slightest opportunity and it will seize it and take advantage of it.
Bettors are jumping on Indy as the line opened at 3 but has been bumped up a half point.
Peyton Manning has struggled in both of the Colts’ playoff wins, just as he has in most of the big playoff games he’s played in. The surprise, of course, is the Indianapolis defense, which jammed up both the Chiefs’ and the Ravens’ offense.
Those teams supposedly had more muscle up front than the Colts. But neither K.C. nor Baltimore has an offense as flexible as the Patriots. Stopping New England’s running game won’t be the key to this battle.
The Pats have the ability to move the ball on the ground, but against a great Chargers run defense, they decided to let Tom Brady put up 51 passes compared to only 21 rushing attempts.
That’s a recipe for disaster for most teams, but for Belichick and the Pats it was a winning design.
The game is in the RCA Dome where the Colts are unbeaten this year and where former Patriot Adam Vinatieri has yet to miss a kick this season.
These numbers are even more impressive, however: Brady is 12-1 in the playoffs and 23-1 on artificial surface in his career. He’s so good on the fake stuff that New England had it installed in Gillette Stadium in place of real grass late in the season.
A lot has been made of Vinatieri leaving the Pats for the Colts, and, yes, it would be ironic if he boots the winning field goal to help Indy get over the top against its nemesis.
It would also be just as ironic if one of the great clutch kickers of all time misses at home for the first time this year in a big spot.
Bet on the latter to be more likely to happen than the former. Just a hunch.
But back to the QBs.
Neither Manning nor Brady has been particularly sharp in the postseason, but Brady, as he showed last week, can still come through when the pressure is on no matter what kind of game he’s having.
The sentimental pick is surely Manning, coach Tony Dungy and the Colts.
The logical pick, though, is Brady, Belichick and the Patriots, especially getting more than a field goal.
Look at it this way:
The Saints have Payton as their coach, and the Bears have Danieal Manning and Ricky Manning in their secondary.
Guess that means there will be either a Payton or a Manning in the Super Bowl.
Just not a Peyton Manning.
Patriots 27, Colts 24