Sometimes the best bracket strategy is who not to pick
Filling out the NCAA men’s basketball brackets might feel a bit strange this year to people in this area.
For the first time in about a decade there’s no Pitt team out there tantalizing you to march them out into the Final Four.
That also makes my job easier since I don’t have to warn you, as I did last year and every year, to not put your faith in the Panthers because they never seem to have that extra edge it takes to put them over the top.
You do, however, have West Virginia to mull over as you prepare your bracket, though the Mountaineers struggled down the stretch and have an unimpressive 19-13 record. Even so, they have the potential to be dangerous when you look at their schedule.
So let me dish out some bracket strategy to those of you who aren’t sure what to do with WVU, which top seeds will survive and which dark horses to take a shot at.
One key to scrawling out a winning bracket is not to figure who’s going to win, but determine who is NOT going to win the title.
Ah, you’re lucky that I can help you there.
With CBI-bound Pitt not here to kick around, I’ll give you a pair of other high-profile teams, one fairly obvious and one not so much, who you should not put into that middle rectangle on your sheet as the champion. This will give you a much better chance at doing well in your pool, trust me.
EAST REGION
First, as we look at WVU’s region in the East, do not go Orange on me.
That would be the Syracuse Orange. Stay away, please. They won’t get out of that region. Sure, they only lost two games all year, they played in that “rugged” Big East and are certainly talented.
But they also just suffered a key blow as center Fab Melo has been ruled ineligible for the tournament by the NCAA. You might look at the stats and say, “well, he wasn’t even one of their leading scorers,” but he was a very valuable defensive and inside presence on that team. The “1” next to Syracuse as the top seed in the East has now been reduced to about a “3” or “4” or lower, really.
To be truthful, even at full strength, Syracuse would have a rough time surviving the top part of the East bracket. Kansas State, Vanderbilt and Wisconsin are all capable of beating coach Jim Boeheim’s team. Take any one of those teams instead of the Orange on that side. My preference is the Badgers.
Even on the bottom half of the bracket, Syracuse could easily be upended by Ohio State, ACC champion Florida State or even Cincinnati, which just recently defeated them in the Big East tournament.
WVU is also on the bottom half of that bracket and a real wild card at that.
The 10th-seeded Mountaineers have lost six of their last 10 games, but they’ve shown the ability to play at a high level.
West Virginia has wins over quality tournament teams such as Kansas State, Georgetown and Cincinnati, plus they suffered several narrow losses to highly seeded teams such as Baylor (83-81), Syracuse (63-61), Louisville (77-74) and Marquette (61-60).
There was one idiot radio host on 93.7 FM (The Fan) trying to drum up calls by trashing WVU as unworthy of a tournament bid while spouting derogatory comments about Mountaineer fans. He’s not even worth naming here, and he’s dead wrong.
West Virginia wasn’t even on the bubble for the tournament, all the experts had them in. And though they could lose to a good seventh-seeded Gonzaga team in the first round, they also could be a handful for second-seeded Ohio State in the second round. You want a sleeper pick? WVU could be it.
I’ll give coach Bob Huggins one win in what is virtually a home game in Pittsburgh, but will take the Buckeyes after that, and then run Ohio State all the way out to the Final Four, though they’ll likely face a tough match-up with the streaking Seminoles in the East semifinals.
SOUTH REGION
Now, who is that second team to stay away from when it comes to winning it all? This is very key.
Believe it or not, it’s Kentucky.
Everyone will be all over the Wildcats, but I’m telling you, John Calipari’s team, though they may get to the Final Four, will not win it all. Oh, I agree, they are unbelievably talented and have probably been the best team in the country during the regular season, hence their designation as the overall top seed in the tournament.
But the reason they won’t win is they’re just too young and inexperienced. You need a little more veteran leadership to survive March Madness than Kentucky has. Calipari uses basically seven players and of that group, four are freshmen, two are sophomores and one is a senior. Somewhere down the line, in a close game against a quality team, they’ll crack under the pressure.
You can put them in the Final Four if you want to and even advance them into the final, but DO NOT take the Wildcats as your overall champ and you’ll have a big edge on a significant number of people in your contest.
If Kentucky does lose in its region, it won’t be to Indiana, which beat them in the regular reason on a buzzer beater, it’ll be a team they’re less familiar with, such as Wichita State (a nice sleeper pick although they are a No. 5 seed), Duke or a highly-talented Baylor squad.
I’m going with the Bears in the upset.
MIDWEST REGION
The one favorite you should go with is North Carolina in the Midwest region. The way the Tar Heels handled Duke in their late-season rematch was scary. When on top of its game, UNC can easily handle just about anybody in the tournament.
Michigan and Kansas will join them in the Sweet 16 along with my sleeper pick in this region, No. 11 North Carolina State, but it’ll be Roy Williams’ Tar Heels still standing in the end.
WEST REGION
Your most competitive bracket is the West, where battle-tested teams such as Michigan State, red-hot Missouri and Marquette all loom, as well as a scary 30-1 Murray State squad, but Louisville is the most dangerous.
Like UConn of last year, Rick Pitino’s Cardinals come into the NCAAs on a roll, having won the Big East tournament as the seventh seed. Pitino is one of the best tournament coaches around, although his team has been knocked out in the first round the last two years.
I can’t see that happening three years in a row. Scribble in Louisville as another Final Four pick after winning a tough battle with Missouri.
As far as a sleeper in the West, keep an eye on ninth-seeded St. Louis. Rick Majerus is a good tournament coach who got Utah to the championship game one year.
FINAL FOUR
In the end, I have Ohio State over Baylor and North Carolina over Louisville, with the Tar Heels lifting the trophy in the final.
As for Pitt, which is favored to win the “prestigious” CBI tournament?
They’ll lose in the second round. Sorry, nothing against the Panthers, who will rebound strong next season, but, hey, just had to throw that in there.
Rob Burchianti can be reached at rvburchianti@hotmail.com