El Nino’s sister is coming for a visit
Weather scientists at the Climate Prediction Center feel that the El Niño weather pattern that was forecast last fall is winding down and should be gone by late spring or early summer. Any impact on our weather at this point should be minimal.
The El Niño of 2015-16 was ranked in the top three El Niño weather events and compares with 1997-98 and 1982-83. Weather scientists have been aware of El Niño and La Niña weather patterns for some 50 years, however forecasting them ahead of time was very difficult. With advances in technology forecasters are getting a better idea of how these patterns form and predictions have gotten much better in the last few years.
Scientists now use an underwater glider that can travel up and down a column of ocean water measuring temperatures as it glides up and down. In early October 2015, the Climate prediction Center was 95 percent sure that a strong El Niño was going to develop and the forecast was right on the money. The economic impact of these weather patterns is enormous and effects government, business and individuals around the planet.
El Niño and La Niña are weather patterns that develop in the Tropical Pacific Ocean waters near the Equator. These are Spanish terms for The Boy and The Girl and were originally discovered by the locals who noticed profound weather changes around Christmas time which coincided with the these disruptive weather patterns.
Many times El Niño patterns end and give way to an opposite weather pattern called La Niña with a complete set of different weather events. The drought comes to an end and is replaced by a flood. Or a mild wet winter follows a cold snowy one. At other times, the ocean water temperatures just go back to normal and we have a neutral phase with more normal conditions and less disruptive weather. Nine out of the last 15 El Niño events in the last 50 years have seen the next year become an La Niña event. In fact, the Climate Prediction Center just this week has issued an La Niña weather watch for next year. Watches are not warnings and are designed to be a heads up for an La Niña pattern to emerge within the next six months.
La Niña tends to favor more hurricanes in the Atlantic, the opposite of El Niño.
Last year was a quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic and a really turbulent one in the Pacific. La Niña usually allows for the jet stream to take up residence further north and this brings more snow and cold to our area whereas El Nino brought us a very mild winter this past season.
As these forecasts become more accurate, they are becoming more popular and its nice to know the Climate Prediction Center people are scientists and not as concerned about ratings as are the TV weather prophets.