Parity? Maybe, but UNC will rule
You want parity, you got it in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament this year.
At least that’s what I keep hearing, things like the tournament is wide open, anyone can win it, there will be upsets galore.
I’m not buying it. Every tournament has upsets and I look at the 2016 bracket and don’t see any more than usual.
Although the No. 1 seeds are considered a less-than-stellar group, there are two that stand out, to me, head and shoulders above the rest.
That would be Kansas and North Carolina.
I’m betting you’ll see those two as the winner in a majority of the brackets if you’re in any contests this year.
My own bracket has one of those two winning it all and the other not reaching the Final Four.
Here’s how I see this year’s tournament:
EAST
The Tar Heels will face some challenges in what is considered the toughest region, but no, none of those will come from West Virginia or Pitt.
A win over Wisconsin would mean a successful season for the Panthers. That won’t happen. Pitt, under Jamie Dixon, is woeful against higher-seeded teams.
Even if Pitt can get past the Badgers, it has little chance against No. 2 Xavier. A better Panther team lost to a lesser Xavier team in 2010.
The Mountaineers are a true wild card in this field. I wouldn’t be shocked if they were upset by Stephen F. Austin, which is a tough first-round match-up. I also wouldn’t be shocked if coach Bob Huggins leads them to another Final Four.
The former is more likely than the latter, though, just because although it certainly is a rugged, tough defensive team, WVU doesn’t seem to have the discipline it needs to string together four wins in a row.
I love Huggins but if they make it past SF Austin, I see either Notre Dame or Xavier sending the Mountaineers packing. If they happen to meet UNC, the Tar Heels are just too talented for them.
A possible interesting second-round matchup could have WVU facing Michigan and former coach John Beilein.
Indiana is a dangerous team and the biggest roadblock to the Tar Heels in the East. I see the Hoosiers taking out Kentucky but falling to North Carolina in a very close game.
The Tar Heels will then fend off the Musketeers and head for Houston.
MIDWEST
This seems like the simplest region to figure out to me. We’re looking at another showdown between No. 1 Virginia and No. 2 Michigan State.
What does the NCAA have against the Cavaliers anyhow? They give them a 1 seed and then set them up against a team they can’t beat.
The Spartans have foiled Virginia’s Final Four hopes the last two years. We’ve already seen this show before. Why does the NCAA insist we see it again? Why couldn’t they put MSU in another region?
As has been proven the last two years and will be proven again this year, Virginia doesn’t match up well against Michigan State and will fall to the Spartans yet again.
SOUTH
The oddsmakers like Kansas in what they considered the weakest region.
I’m not so sure. The team that intrigues me is Maryland.
The Terrapins had their greatest start ever at 15-0 but faltered in the second half of the season. The talent is there and I see them regrouping and making a strong run.
Villanova is a non-factor as a No. 2 seed — I saw them falter in person last year against North Carolina State — and California is a shaky No. 4 seed.
No. 3 Miami, Fla., Iowa and play-in team Wichita State are the best bets to reach the regional final.
Whoever comes out of the bottom half of the bracket — let’s go with a surprise and take the Shockers who looked so good Tuesday night — will face Maryland, not Kansas. The Terps will take out the Jayhawks in the third round on their way to the Final Four.
WEST
Oregon will surely be the least picked team of the four No. 1s to reach the Final Four and for good reason. The Ducks don’t belong there, Michigan State does.
This region is a free-for-all with Cincinnati, Baylor, Duke, Texas, Northern Iowa, Texas A&M and Oklahoma all capable of winning it.
The Sooners are the pick here, although you can never count out defending champion Duke as long as Mike Krzyzewski is coach. The Blue Devils are thin but their starting five is excellent.
FINAL FOUR
The final I would love to see would be Bill Self’s Jayhawks against former Kansas coach Roy Williams’ Tar Heels. That would be grand to watch. But it won’t happen.
I foresee a pair of old familiar teams in the final, as in former ACC member Maryland, now with the Big Ten, and this year’s ACC champion North Carolina.
It’ll be the ultra-talented Tar Heels cutting down the nets for the second time under Williams.
Rob Burchianti can be reached at rburchianti@heraldstandard.com.