Analyzing the impact on Pirates of Marte’s absence
Regardless of how you may feel about Starling Marte the human being in light of his 80 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs, it is clear that the Pittsburgh Pirates greatly missed Starling Marte the baseball player.
And in this edition of Bucs By Numbers, we aim to explain exactly what the team lost over those 80 games, telling the tale from statistical standpoints.
We have previously reviewed WAR (Wins Above Replacement, or the singular number of how many wins a player is worth) in this space, and that feels like as good a place to start as any. During Marte’s absence, the Pirates accumulated 0.5 Wins Above Replacement, good for 20th out of 30 Major League teams. The motley crew of Adam Frazier, John Jaso, Jose Osuna and others never quite looked the part of a comfortable left fielder, a fact that was apparent both on offense and defense. With Marte posting an average WAR of 5.2 each of the last four seasons, we can definitely state that Marte’s absence cost the team two “wins.”
An even better measuring stick to quantify the hole left by Marte would be WAA, or Wins Above Average. A bit different than WAR, WAA adds up the entire WAR of everyone to play a position in the 2017 MLB season, and averages that out — thus creating a secondary metric to see how a player does in regards to a more true average.
Pirates left fielders put up a -0.6 rating in this regard, surprisingly ranking eighth out of 15 National League clubs.
Marte had worked his way into becoming a consistent on-base threat, with a .362 OBP in 2016, the best mark of his career. His replacements over the 80-game stretch? Not so much, with .328 rate settling in at a decidedly average ninth-place ranking in the National League.
Curiously enough, Marte’s chief LF replacement — Adam Frazier — put up an in-the-ballpark figure of .331 while receiving the most plate appearances of any Pirates LF replacement at 190. Ditto for slugging percentage, which sees Frazier’s .351 rating holding up the team’s .381 mark overall — 12th in the NL and a far cry from Marte’s .448 career mark.
Opposing teams hated seeing Marte get on base, as he was a constant source of worry for defenses. Marte’s ability to swipe bases is legendary, as his 47 stolen bases in 2016 attests. Without Marte, that number shrank to just 11 bags — actually second best among left fielders in the National League, but far from the lofty numbers that Marte puts up that give the Pirates an edge on the base paths.
Marte’s All-Star worthy numbers last year were not enough to put the Pittsburgh Pirates into the MLB Postseason for a fourth consecutive year. Yet, when his suspension was announced many felt it akin to a death sentence for the team’s hopes to get back there.
Against all odds, the club is still in contention for an NL Central division crown. With their All-Star left fielder back in the fold, the numbers may just tip in their favor.