A peek ahead at winter
As the nice Indian summer weather we enjoyed for most of October fades away with the falling leaves and cooler temperatures, folks are beginning to ask about the coming winter. With all the hype in recent years, weather forecasts for winter seem to be coming earlier each year. The truth is no one really knows for sure, even in spite of improvements in weather forecasting.
Most years, these early winter forecasts turn out a bit different than what actually happens. Although there was talk of a milder winter last year none of the forecasts predicted just how warm it would be and the one big snow of the season was not forecast until just a few days before the storm arrived.
Wooly worms, acorns and furrier animals are still favored by some; however, the brown and black colors of the wooly worms have a lot to do with the age of the caterpillar and nothing to do with the upcoming winter weather. Abundant acorns are the result of last spring’s growing season and animals are always furrier in the winter as they prepare for winter. The television “weather profits” are interested in ratings and while they are getting better, the “state of the art” leaves lot of room for error.
With all of that said, weather forecasts are getting better with big improvements in the shorter-term forecasts and the ability to give us a good indication of general trends for the longer outlooks. We still cannot predict what the forecast will be for Christmas day or your daughter’s wedding in February, but we can with some degree of accuracy give you an idea of the trends that will prevail this coming winter.
I like to get my information from the Climate Prediction Center.
These are the scientists who look at the interaction of the ocean and the atmosphere and are getting pretty good at forecasting El Nino or La Niña weather patterns.
Odds seem to favor a weak La Niña pattern developing over the next few months somewhat like last year. This pattern would put the odds at our region having a 40 percent chance of being wetter than normal for the months of December, January and February. Temperatures favor a 33 percent chance of being milder than normal for this period.
Average winter temperatures are in the 30s and 40s for daytime highs and in the 20s for morning lows. Mountain highs and lows average in the 30s and teens. As usual, we will probably have a few arctic blasts with temperatures falling to zero or below. Even with a mild winter, one should expect a few of these days, as well as some ice and snow.
Mild and wet winters can also produce some pretty significant snows as there is more moisture available if the temperatures are right. The coldest winter temperature for the area was 22 below zero on Jan. 21, 1994. In the mountains, our coldest was 27 below at Chalk Hill and minus 34 has been observed in Elliottsville. Snowfall for the area averages 43 inches for the lower elevations and 88 for the mountains.
Best advice. Be prepared. Have the furnace serviced. Extra supplies of water, food, batteries and fuel and then sit back and enjoy another beautiful season.