Does weather folklore, natural forecasters actually predict the weather?
Michael Palm|Herald-Standard
Some people swear by woolly bear caterpillars as a reliable indicator of the coming winter weather. Mostly-black caterpillars mean a long, cold, snowy winter. The more brown, the milder the upcoming winter.
You may have heard before that those brown and black woolly caterpillars can help predict what kind of winter is ahead.
Similar predictors of weather have been spread down through folklore, involving everything from where birds are flying to the color of the sky. But how much truth or fiction is behind those old tales?
“Weather is something that humans have always strived to understand, predict and even control,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They added that people have long used stories to try to explain rhythms, patterns and events of nature.
One of the oldest in the book involves those tiny woolly bear caterpillar that are numerous this time of year.
“According to folklore, the amount of black on the woolly bear in autumn varies proportionately with the severity of the coming winter in the locality where the caterpillar is found,” according to the National Weather Service.
In short, larger black portions indicate a hard, cold, snowy winter, while larger brown portions indicate a mild winter.
Folklore also notes which part of the winter will be hardest — the tail end of the worm represents the end of winter, while the head represents the beginning.
The NWS also indicates that there’s more than one versions of this myth. Other tales passed down over the years include the thickness of the woolly worm’s coat, indicating that the woollier the caterpillar’s coat, the more severe the upcoming winter will be.
Another version is noting where the caterpillar is traveling. If he’s heading north, it could spell a mild winter, while a southward-heading caterpillar means a hard winter is ahead, according to the NWS.
As fun as those tales may be, the NWS says there’s no merit to them.
Rather, the woolly caterpillar ‘s coloring merely indicates how it’s been feeding, as well as its age and species.
“The better the growing season is the bigger is will grow.
This results in narrower red-orange bands in its middle,” according to the NWS. “This, the width of the banding is an indicator of the current or past season’s growth rather than an indicator of the severity of the upcoming winter.”
Those tiny caterpillars aren’t the only wildlife that have been dubbed prognosticators.
Folklore and proverbs have long told of bird’s abilities to predict weather fronts and impending weather.
According to The Old Farmers’ Almanac, one of the more popular adages involves hawks: “Hawks flying high means a clear sky. When they fly low, prepare for a blow.”
The Almanac says that one, and similar variations of it, does actually have merit.
“Birds tend to stop flying and take refuge at the coast if a storm is coming. They’ll also fly low to avoid the discomfort of the falling air pressure,” the Almanac states.
Their songs — or lack thereof — may also be indicators of what’s to come, or what has passed.
“Birds tend to get very quiet before a big storm. If you’ve ever been walking in the woods before a storm, the natural world is eerily silent,” the Almanac reads. “Birds also sing if the weather is improving.”
Another long standing proverb in weather folklore involves the sky right outside your door, particularly at dusk and dawn.
“Red at night, sailors delight. Red in the morning, sailors take warning.”
The Farmers’ Almanac notes the truth in this one as well, stating that the colorful display usually spells out the dry or rainy weather ahead.
“A reddish sunset means that the air is dusty and dry. Since weather in North American latitudes usually moves from west to east, a red sky at sunset means dry weather — good for sailing — is moving east,” the Almanac says.
“Conversely, a reddish sunrise means that dry air from the west has already passed over us on its way east, clearing the way for a storm to move in,” they continue.
While modern science has proven that these old adages may not predict weather very well, they are still fun to learn and experiment with.