Setting the odds on Steelers’ first-round pick
Sometimes you nail them, like in 2011 when I had scant 3-1 odds on the Steelers drafting Cam Heyward with the 31st pick of the draft.
But sometimes you fail them. I didn’t have Bud Dupree or Terrell Edmunds on the tote board at all in the years they were drafted.
Most times, though, I’ve had the Steelers’ first-round draft pick pegged at about 8-1 odds, so that may be the place to make your money. Over the past 10 drafts, I’ve had Ziggy Hood, David DeCastro, Artie Burns and T.J. Watt at 8-1 odds. Ryan Shazier was 9-1 and climbing at the time he was picked.
This year figures to be as difficult as last year’s, when I should’ve had better awareness of Edmunds at pick 28. The buzz was in the air, but I chose to ignore it the same way I’m ignoring Jerry Tillery, Noah Fant and DeAndre Baker this year. Not that there’s any Steelers buzz about those three, other than they would fit.
But this year, even with the Steelers picking at a more predictable 20th spot, the chances of them trading up or down has opened up the tote board to some 40 players. That was what I took away from the Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin press conference Monday.
Colbert discussed trading up to answer the many questions about the Steelers going and getting Devin Bush or Devin White. But Colbert repeatedly gave me the vibe that he wants to trade down.
The latter makes sense because of the many defensive playmakers being graded in the 25-50 range. I can actually see a trade down and then a trade back up for a team that can definitely use all 10 of its picks, if not more, to re-stock the depth chart (and special teams) of a franchise that’s been drafting 24th on average the last 10 years.
So let’s get to it.
Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State, 15-1 — Twenty years ago this weekend the Steelers had Jevon Kearse on the phone — as they drafted Troy Edwards. Just a reminder for those who want to discount a freak of a 4-3 defensive end because he “doesn’t fit the Steelers’ 3-4.” SMH.
Devin White, ILB, LSU, 14-1 — Only on the board because it’s obvious the Steelers covet him. He’ll probably be gone, but if he slips a bit, and the Steelers don’t mind trading a second and next year’s Le’Veon Bell comp pick, they could end up with this guy.
Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma, 13-1 — Not that the Steelers would attempt to troll an entire family, it’s just that Antonio’s cousin runs a 4.33.
Brian Burns, OLB, Florida State, 12-1 — Might be worth an Elaine Benes sawbuck here. This is the perfect Steelers OLB. He’s 20 years old, can rush and cover, and sub-package defenses would allow him on the field as a third OLB. His drawback is power at the point, but Burns gained 21 pounds and still ran in the 4.5s at the NFL Combine. Decent shot at falling, too.
Greedy Williams, CB, LSU, 11-1 — Tomlin passing on an LSU corner who’s over 6 feet and runs under 4.4? Yowza. But if Tomlin listens to his analytics department, I’m sure they’ve shown him the mass burial ground of skinny CBs who’ve busted out. Some concern about Greedy’s passion for the game, too.
Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia, 10-1 — Can you play free safety? That’s what Tomlin asked Thornhill at the Combine. This is a trade-down option for a high school state championship point guard and quarterback. Thornill’s 13 career interceptions while being used all over the Virginia back-seven speak to not only his ball skills but his versatility.
Darnell Savage, S, Maryland, 9-1 — Like Thornhill, Savage could play cornerback or nickel slot or sub-packages as one of three, four or five safeties on the field in this age of hybrids. This particular hybrid will remind you of Troy Polamalu — or more precisely Bob Sanders — with his 4.36 speed that shows up on the field as a blur. A trade-down option, but also a worthy choice at pick 20.
Nasir Adderley, FS, Delaware, 8-1 — The fact that so few have this ballhawking free safety (who hits like a middle linebacker) in their top 25 tempers the odds. So does the fact that Colbert has drafted only four non-FBS players in his 19 drafts, the highest of whom was Ricardo Colclough in the second round in 2004. A Hall of Fame cornerback’s cousin can at least do that right now.
Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple, 7-1 — Here comes the cornerback run. But this is less about logic and more about steam, because Ya-Sin is the hot name associated with the Steelers right now. But, really, where would Ya-Sin play? Rock is a classic outside corner, and while Steven Nelson may be built like a slot corner, and played the position early in his career at Kansas City, he wasn’t very good at it.
Byron Murphy, CB, Washington, 5-1 — The Steelers must improve upon their 78-year low of eight interceptions last season, and Murphy is the best ballhawk at this position and could probably play some slot.
Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan, 4-1 — I hear the Steelers like this Devin better than the other, but of course neither Tomlin nor Colbert returned my call for confirmation. Bush, who’ll soon become the shortest linebacker ever drafted in the first round, could slip to them. He hasn’t been that productive (3.4 solo tackles per game, 1 career interception, 11 career passes defensed), but he’s fast, played at a major major, loves the game, and is the son of a former first-round safety. It all adds up for the Steelers, who’ve never had issue with short players. All that tempers the odds are the 19 teams drafting ahead of them who could use a durable, highly pedigreed inside linebacker with 4.43 speed. That’s all.