Mother Nature full of uncertainty
Our weather has always been full of uncertainty.
This past week weather forecasters have been trying to figure out the actual path of the winter storm that is affecting much of the country this weekend.
The Weather Channel this past Wednesday morning was calling for a massive winter storm to target over 180 million from Texas to New England.
Weather.com was forecasting 1-2 inches for us and the National Weather Service was calling for light snow over the weekend.
Computer models are still uncertain at this point as to the actual amount of snow that will fall and the European Model introduces some sleet and freezing rain in Southwestern Pennsylvania.
Both models do show a large storm but current trends show the heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain to be mostly south of our area, that will wreak havoc with travel and power systems. Large ice accumulations will disrupt power and make for icy roads. Of course, all this could change if the storm takes a more northern track.
If you read this on Sunday afternoon the storm should be gone from our area, however the Arctic Air that arrived with the Polar Vortex should be fully entrenched and likely to stay with us over the weekend and into all of next week.
Most of our region will flirt with zero actual air temperatures and wind chills below zero. About a week ago I noticed that Fairbanks, Alaska had finally crawled out of the 25 to 50 below zero temperatures and that appeared to be heading south. When this happens they see temperatures in the teens and 20s and Anchorage was above freezing.
A bit of good news is on the horizon as the folks at the Climate Prediction Center and several of the other forecasters are now hinting at a warmup towards the end of the first week in February that will produce above-average temperatures over much of the country for February, March and April.
So far this winter has followed the La Nina weather pattern that was forecast last fall. That same forecast also called for the pattern to end by mid-February.
Mother Nature has always been full of surprises and folks in South Florida may remember the snow that fell across and even south of Miami on Jan. 19, 1977. That had never happened before, at least in recorded history.
On the Gulf side of Florida in 1899 snow made it as far south as Ft Myers and that visit from the Polar Vortex gave Florida its coldest temperature ever recorded of 2 below zero in Tallahassee.
Last week light snow fell in Northern Florida and last year a Gulf Coast storm brought 5-10 inches of the white stuff to almost all of Northern Florida.
If you plan a winter vacation to Florida make sure that the forecast does not include a visit from the Polar Vortex.
Weather forecasts today are usually good enough to give you about a week’s warning of a Polar Vortex visit. It will be interesting to see how the storm this weekend plays out.
Keep the shovel handy.