Modern weather forecasting

An example is this past week’s forecast of a historic Lake Effect Snowstorm that would paralyze the area around Buffalo and Watertown, New York with 4-to-6 feet of snow coming down at rates of 3-to-5 inches per hour. The storm and its effects were evidence of the need to receive timely and accurate weather forecasts. Three days before the first flakes began to fall forecasters were predicting a storm of historic proportions.

In many ways it was a classic Lake Effect storm but the stage this time was a lot different and the computers that make these predictions picked up on the fact that for the first 12 days in November temperatures across the Middle Atlantic and the Northeast were way above normal and this led to the Great Lakes actually warming rather than their normal cooling in early November.

Temperatures were in the 70s and low 80s when they should have been in the low to mid 50s.You may recall the Uniontown area reached 81 degrees two weekends ago.

While the Great Lakes were warming a mound of extremely cold polar air was building in the Arctic and this was picked up by the Jet Stream, a band of fast-moving winds that transport air from place to place. The cold air plunged southward and as it crossed the warm Great Lake waters it picked up moisture and condensed it into clouds and snowflakes.

These bands of snow grew rapidly as the contrasting air masses were so significant and large amounts of snow accumulated as the snow bands hit the land on the lee side of the lakes. Accumulation rates of 3-to-5 inches per hour resulted in 6-to-7 feet totals. With the forecast in mind, the Buffalo Bills football game was moved to Detroit as over 6 feet of snow blanketed the stadium.

For years the Great Lakes had to contend with these Lake Effect snows and because a small change in wind direction can mean 50 inches of snow for one place and just a few inches or no snow for another close by it presented a real challenge for accurate forecasts.

Accurate weather forecasts are becoming more commonplace and the change started when Hurricane Sandy devastated New York and New Jersey 10 years ago. The computer models that were coming into play then accurately predicted the Super Storm some eight days out even before the storm was a reality. Sandy killed 161 people and damaged or destroyed 650,000 homes and cost some $50 billion in damages.

The computer models all said it would be a Super Storm and it was. With the recent climate problems making storms more intense and people more vulnerable, more accurate forecasts are vital. Even though Hurricane Ian earlier this year took a sharp turn at the last minute, the storm was forecast a week before it arrived. Public agencies need to be aware that even with advance warning last-minute changes are possible and should be incorporated into contingent plans.

While 100% accuracy is still in the future we have come a long way in just the last decade and the future of weather forecasting will be an ever-increasing part of our lives.

The two-day forecast of a decade ago is now the six-day forecast of today and as we continue to be guided by the ever-improving computer models forecasting can only get better.