Jan 21, 2011 By Lou Gaul Calkins Media Film Critic 6 min read

For movie fans, the big game is about to start.

On Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., this year’s Oscar nominees for the 83rd Academy Awards will be announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Film fanatics and casual fans will be anxiously waiting to hear the names of those who have been remembered by the 6,200 voting members of the academy and who have been forgotten.

Let’s be honest: The potential nominees for top honors this year don’t compare with last year, when James Cameron’s towering fantasy “Avatar” and Katherine Bigelow’s gripping war drama “The Hurt Locker” went head-to-head and generated plenty of excitement to the awards show. (“Locker” triumphed.)

That’s not the case this year. For example, “The Social Network,” which is the favorite in numerous categories, can be respected for the way director David Fincher captured the growth and impact of Facebook, but it’s a challenge to be too passionate about the film.

Here’s a look at some of the possible hits and misses that might be nominated in the major categories this week.

And the Oscars, which will be bestowed on Feb. 27, may go to:

BEST PICTURE

Sure shot: With its timely topic, strong narrative and brilliant editing, “The Social Network” ranks as this year’s favorite. A nomination – as well as a win – seems assured for the PG-13 picture.

Strong possibilities: Christopher Nolan’s “Inception,” Tom Hooper’s “The King’s Speech,” Joel and Ethan Coen’s “True Grit,” and Darren Aronofsky’s “Black Swan.”

Possibilities: Ben Affleck’s “The Town,” Lisa Cholodenko’s “The Kids Are All Right,” Danny Boyle’s “127 Hours” (which opened with the promise of being an academy favorite and then quickly cooled off when the grisly arm-cutting scene became too unsettling for many viewers).

Long shot: Debra Granik’s “Winter’s Bone,” which tells the story of a teenage girl on a dangerous Ozark odyssey. In my mind, it’s the best film of 2010.

BEST ACTOR

Sure shot: British favorite Colin Firth, who many people felt should have won last year for “A Single Man,” in the current box-office favorite “The King’s Speech.”

Strong possibilities: Jeff Bridges (though his chances of winning shrink because he triumphed last year in “Crazy Heart”) for “True Grit,” Jesse Eisenberg for “The Social Network,” James Franco for “127 Hours,” and Ryan Gosling for “Blue Valentine.”

Possibilities: Academy veteran Robert Duvall for his grumpy performance as an eccentric man who wants to be alive for his funeral in “Down Low,” and Jim Carrey for his energetic portrayal of a gay man who breaks out of numerous prisons to be with his lover in the fact-based and mostly overlooked “I Love You Phillip Morris.”

Long shots: Leonardo DiCaprio for “Inception,” which has lost its heat as a best-picture hopeful, meaning academy voters may show the wildly successful caper fantasy some respect by nominating its popular and talented star.

BEST ACTRESS

Sure shots: Annette Bening and Natalie Portman for “The Kids Are All Right” and “Black Swan,” respectively. Both performers are highly respected in Hollywood and give dynamic performances. I give the edge to Portman due to her yearlong commitment to get in the shape of a ballerina for her stunning work as an artistic young woman on the brink of madness.

Strong possibilities: Nicole Kidman as a grieving parent in “Rabbit Hole,” Jennifer Lawrence as a teen on a mission in “Winter’s Bone,” and Michelle Williams as a woman in a relationship that turns toxic in “Blue Valentine.”

Possibility: Noomi Rapace as a brilliant computer hacker and an emotionally troubled young woman in the Swedish import “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.”

Long shot: Emma Stone for her assured performance as a high school good girl who convinces her fellow students that she has some secrets in order to increase her social standing in “Easy A.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sure shot: Christian Bale is unforgettable as the drug-addicted brother in “The Fighter.” He’s simultaneously tragic and scary, and if he doesn’t lose his temper on any film sets, he has an excellent chance to win.

Strong possibilities: Andrew Garfield for “The Social Network,” Jeremy Renner in “The Town,” Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right,” and Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech.”

Possibilities: Character actor John Hawkes brings contrasting elements of menace and kindness to “Winter’s Bone” and shouldn’t be overlooked. French actor Vincent Cassel ignites “Black Swan” as a driven choreographer who believes his dancers must give all to achieve perfection in their art. Michael Douglas could also get a nod for re-creating his Gordon Gekko character in “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps,” though the sequel’s tepid critical response and limited box office might hurt the chances of the Hollywood favorite.

Long shots: Michael Nyqvist for playing a journalist who won’t buckle and helps a troubled young woman find some peace in “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,” based on the first novel in the late Stieg Larsson’s Millennium Trilogy.

Jonah Hill creates a frighteningly clinging mama’s boy in “Cyrus,” a cringe comedy about a 21-year-old guy who sabotages his mom’s romantic relationships.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sure shot (if she’s in this category): Julianne Moore in “The Kids Are All Right,” with the studio pegging her for the supporting category so she doesn’t compete directly with co-star Annette Bening for best actress.

Strong possibilities: Amy Adams for “The Fighter,” Helena Bonham Carter for “The King’s Speech,” Mila Kunis for “Black Swan,” Melissa Leo for “The Fighter,” and Hailee Steinfeld for “True Grit.”

Possibility: Australian actress Jacki Weaver as the grandmother from hell in “Animal Kingdom.”

Long shots: Barbara Hershey as a controlling mother applying pressure to her dancer daughter in “Black Swan.” British actress Lesley Manville for her intense performance as an emotionally self-destructive single woman in Mike Leigh’s “Another Year.”

BEST DIRECTOR

These five – Aronofsky for “Black Swan,” the Coen brothers for “True Grit,” Fincher for “The Social Network,” Hooper for “The King’s Speech” and Nolan for “Inception” – seem to have a lock on the nomination.

If there’s any justice, Affleck could land in this category for “The Town,” a bank-robbing drama that has enjoyed critical and commercial success.

We’ll all know the nominees early Tuesday and can get down to the serious business of predicting who will – not necessarily should – take home a golden statue at the 83rd Academy Awards.

Perry’s ‘Family’ coming soon

My recent 2011 Film Preview had an incorrect title and release date for Tyler Perry’s next film.

“Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family,” which features Lauren London (“I Love You, Beth Cooper”), Shannon Kane (“Brooklyn’s Finest”) and Philip Anthony-Rodriguez (TV’s “Meet the Browns”), will arrive in theaters April 22.

Lou Gaul can be reached at 609-871-8055 or lgaul@phillyBurbs.com.