Rescuing the economy, and more
The next few weeks will be crucial ones for Democrats and Joe Biden, for Republicans, for the country as a whole.
For in the next few weeks Congress will consider and then pass a COVID-19 relief measure – President Biden’s American Rescue Plan.
As of today, two – actually three – complications cloud the old political crystal ball.
One is the size of the measure. The Biden administration has proposed a package worth $1.9 trillion. Republicans evidently have something smaller in mind.
The second involves the manner in which it clears the Senate – with Republican votes or without.
If you’re a Democrat, or even a Republican, what’s best – a big bill that passes on a straight party line vote or a smaller bipartisan measure?
The brunt of the answer must of necessity fall on an assessment of need. At the same time, there is a political imperative, as there always is in Washington. This one is especially acute in light of decades of political gridlock and new polling that indicates strong support for the measure among rank-and-file members of both parties.
If Democrats, by taking the proverbial bull by the horns, are able to fashion a new political reality in Washington, beginning with a big American Rescue Plan, the whole country wins, Democrats and Republicans alike.
By delivering the economic relief they’ve promised, Democrats will have taken a first step in showing that democracy can, indeed, work, not for the big guys but for Main Street Americans, for the average Joes and Janes of the country.
There are risks in going big. Political victories frequently harvest grief for the winners. Unknown consequences lurk around every corner.
Still, the opportunity is there, and history suggests it’s worth a try.
For illustration purposes, consider Franklin Roosevelt, the Great Depression, and the New Deal. From the end of the Civil War until the onset of the Depression in 1929, Republicans dominated national politics. The tide began to turn in the mid-term elections of 1930. FDR’s election in 1932 again moved the political needle, not because of anything he had done but because things were so bad.
The congressional elections of 1934 solidified and expanded those earlier gains. And FDR’s gigantic reelection victory in 1936 hammered home the point that Democrats were in charge.
What accounts for this level of success? Initially at least, the answer is pretty evident: Roosevelt and the Democrats delivered the goods.
Republicans, staggered by the failure of the Hoover administration to stem the Depression, were in no position to fight back.
The analogy is a rough one, for sure. The current economic downturn is bad, but it’s nowhere near the 30-40% unemployment of the Depression years.
Nevertheless, we face a crisis today – actually several of them – all of which call for the same kind of determined leadership Roosevelt and the Democrats demonstrated in the 1930s.
What’s more, Republicans have been staggered of late, divided and flummoxed by the Jan. 6 siege of the Capitol and the role Donald Trump might – or might not – play in the party’s future.
They seem incapable of mounting a credible argument against the Biden plan. Having to deal with a matter of actual governance, perhaps they are just out of practice. Or maybe they’re back on their heels because of recent polling: Morning Consult, for instance, puts Republican support for the $1.9 trillion Biden plan at 60%.
Jennifer Palmieri, director of communication in the Obama White House, said recently that now is the time for Democrats to strike, with “7 out of 10 Americans” in favor of the measure and with Republicans in disarray.
“If you’re sitting the White House,” she said, “what (you are saying) is ‘I want to get the bill passed’ and (you worry) ‘are the Republicans able to make an effective critique of the bill that might hurt us electorally.'”
She thinks Republican befuddlement is so deep that they can’t respond, or at least they haven’t up until now.
“When (Democrats) are looking for bipartisanship (now) they are looking for it out in the country,” Palmieri said.
For certain, the administration would love to win over some Senate Republicans. The parliamentarian’s ruling on Thursday – the third complication – regarding the inadmissibility of a minimum wage provision in the COVID relief bill could make this task easier.
At the same, the ruling has the potential to knock Democrats off-balance and set the stage for an enervating tussle between the liberal and moderate wings of the party.
Richard Robbins lives in Uniontown. His latest book, “JFK Rising,” is available on Amazon. He can be reached at dick.l.robbins@gmail.com.