Oct 3, 2005 By Jennifer Harr And Josh Krysak 4 min read

While millions of Americans are glued to their television sets each morning, watching daily weather forecasts, and millions more tune in on their daily commute to plan activities in conjunction with the weather, another more simple weather predictor also remains popular. Since 1792, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has appeared annually, wagering guesses on a year’s worth of weather – boasting 80 percent accuracy.

And this year, if the prediction for the Ohio Valley region, which includes Pittsburgh and the surrounding areas, falls in that 80 percent range of accuracy, area residents are in for a cold, snowy winter.

The almanac, a quirky, useful listing of weather and other seasonal events, has pegged the coldest times as mid-December and mid-to-late January for the coming year, but predicted snowfalls from November 2005 through April 2006.

In December and January the almanac, founded by Robert B. Thomas, also lists average temperatures of 28 and 23 degrees respectively.

Both predictions are several degrees lower than the average temperature in those months from 1971 through 2000.

The first snowfall is slated to occur Nov. 22-26, according to the almanac. Various types of snowfalls are predicted Dec. 5-18, and the almanac forecasts a snowstorm Dec. 19-27. The month ends sunny and mild by almanac predictions.

Likewise in January, the almanac predicts snowfalls from Jan. 1-21, and a snowstorm Jan. 27-31. The almanac allows for a brief respite from snow Jan. 22-26, when it lists area weather conditions as sunny, but cold.

Only a few days in February – 1-4 and 19-22 – forecast snowfall for the region. The remaining days are predicted to be mild.

The almanac also predicts snow March 10-14 and 26-31, but otherwise notes the month’s weather will be seasonable, sometimes rainy and sometimes sunny.

The final mention of snow comes April 8-13, but the bulk of the month is listed as seasonable in the almanac.

But other weather forecasters are a little skeptical of the almanac, noting that while it may be right some of the time, the science is not exact.

Meteorologist Ray Visneski of the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh said Thursday that the winter months for the nation, east of the Mississippi are expected to be “notoriously average.”

He said the weather service does not have indications to validate the predictions of an especially snowy or cold season.

“Winters are always cold, but the forecasts we have are just average,” Visneski said.

He said the average snowfall for the region during the winter is 40.6 inches, with the majority of the snow falling in January and February.

He also noted that temperatures are expected to remain at average levels, ranging from 40-degree average highs in December to 20-degree average lows in January, at odds with overall predictions from the almanac that call for a colder-than-normal winter.

But Visneski and the National Weather Service are not privy to the secret formula devised in 1792 by Thomas to predict annual weather patterns.

According to a passage in the 2006 almanac, Thomas “believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the sun.”

Now, those who compile the almanac annually to make the long-range predictions, use solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere.

“We believe that nothing in the universe happens haphazardly, that there is a cause-and-effect pattern to all phenomena. However, although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, our results are almost very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent,” a passage in the almanac said.

The 2006 almanac is available now across the region.