Could Phil be a no-show?
With all the ice, snow and frigid weather the rumor is that Phil may stay nestled in his burrow, however most folks feel he will show up since he simply loves all the attention he gets.
Each year on February 2nd we wait in anticipation for our furry friend Phil to poke his head out of his burrow in Punxsutawney and let us know if winter will hang around for another six weeks or if the mild winds of spring will engulf the area.
Phil is not only a legend in our area with his weather prognostications but has become famous throughout much of the US and Canada. Several states have adopted their own furry animals, however no animal has the following that gather around Phil at Gobbler’s Knob. They come from all over the world and the local economy certainly benefits from all the attention.
This has been going on since 1887 and there is an official Groundhog club that co-ordinates the various events. Groundhog Day’s origins stem from an ancient European celebration of Candlemas, the midpoint of the astronomical winter.
Phil’s track record of late has not been very accurate, however the legend continues to grow in popularity and has become a mid-winter fun week when Western Pennsylvania and much of the region could use a respite from the below-zero temperatures as well as the mounds of snow and ice that cover the area.
Since 1887 Phil has spotted his shadow 107 times, however according to the Stormfax Weather Almanac his accuracy rate is just 40 percent. Better than most furry creatures but still a bit behind the human weather prophets who in 1887, when all of this started, were not as good as Phil.
With radar and satellites and computer models, humans have gained the upper ground in recent years but many still swear by Phil’s forecast. Folks in Punxsutawney would argue that Phil is closer to 100 percent.
Perhaps the administration should check with Phil before they proclaim that climate change is a hoax. The current visit from the Polar Vortex does not spell the end of climate warming just as a few 95 degree days in summer offer proof of climate warming. These are just weather events and even with a warmer planet we will still have occasional snow, cold and visits of Arctic air. It takes decades of daily weather events to establish climate patterns that are useful to scientists. Weather is what we get day to day and climate is what we experience over the long trend.
What we know and share with Phil is that Mother Earth is adding an increased amount of sunlight and this will help warm the atmosphere in the coming weeks. On February 1st sunrise and sunset are at 7:30 a.m. and 5:38 p.m. and by month’s end the sun rises at 6:56 and sets at 6:10. Average temperatures start out on the 1st at 38 for the high and 20 for the morning low. At the end of the month, temperatures increase to a high of 47 and a morning low of 27 degrees. Records for February are a high of 77 and a low of 16 below zero.
It looks like the Polar Vortex will return to the Arctic and we will be favored with more mild days in the latter half of February. The last couple of weeks have been more like the old-fashioned winters that we had in the past.
I’ll be anxious to see what Phil has to say about all of this.