A visit from the naughty boy
Already scientists are growing concerned over the possibility of a Super El Nino weather event developing and its effect on much of the world’s weather.
Pacific water temperatures are already nearing 3 degrees above normal and while this may not seem like much one must remember we are dealing with a large body of water and 3 degrees will bring lots of disruptions, some of which have already started.
Warmer water is the fuel Mother Nature uses to produce storms and cause these weather disruptions.
El Nino weather events were discovered around 1950 as the science of weather forecasting learned of their presence. El Nino got its name from the fact that these warmer waters occurred around Christmas time and El Nino is a term first used by Peruvian fishermen who noticed strange weather conditions occurring some years in December and January that led to a drastic reduction of fish in the ocean.
The conditions were thus named El Nino, which is Spanish for the “Baby Boy” due to their occurrence in the Christmas period.
Scientists feel this is going to be a super El Nino and it will have an 81% chance of being stronger than normal and last longer, probably into the spring of 2027.
These storms will be strongest in the Pacific Basin and probably bring much needed rains to our western states. But these rains falling on areas where previous fires have occurred can lead to devastating floods and mud slides as vegetation is missing due to recent fires.
The Atlantic Basin usually sees a decrease in hurricane activity during El Nino as there is a lot of wind shear that inhibits rising air and storm development.
Hurricane Ian was an exception in 2022, bringing devastation to Florida and flooding rains to the mountains of North Carolina. Ian killed 161 people. It stayed out of the Atlantic but approached Florida from the Gulf Coast as a Category 5 storm with winds of 160 mph. The mountains of North Carolina provided some lift to the storm and produce deadly, flooding rains.
At this point it appears that our northern states and Ohio Valley will be milder and drier than normal and the southern and western ones cooler and wetter.
Southwestern Pennsylvania looks to be on the fringe of this pattern with fall and winter temperatures a bit above normal and rainfall also a little above the average.
This is the long-term prediction from the Climate Prediction Center and at this point local effect looks to be minimal here but across the planet these weather patterns usually bring lots of storms and destruction.
Of course, when you add in the changes caused by our warming climate it only adds to the potential for problems.
This may be a good time to begin to reflect on the role of human beings on our weather and planet and begin to develop some contingencies to deal with these visits in the future.
There is much we can do but first we must acknowledge the role we play in all of this and quit denying Mother Earth is in trouble.
A bit of good news for the coming week: the heat dome of last week will be moving on and cooler temperatures and some much needed rain is in the forecast.