WVU football schedule tougher than expected
AP Photo
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — Heading into West Virginia football’s season, a lot of fans and media members looked at the Mountaineers’ schedule as pretty favorable, especially with all the movement in the offseason with the coaching carousel.
Four of the teams on WVU’s schedule have first-year head coaches. Coastal Carolina had new head coach Ryan Beard, Oklahoma State hired Eric Morris from North Texas, Morgan Scalley took over from Kyle Whittingham at Utah and Iowa State picked up Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.
The Mountaineers were also set to face a lot of new quarterbacks, like at TCU, Kansas, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Virginia, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. WVU had its own fresh face at quarterback too, in Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins Jr.
Because of all the movement, the Mountaineers had just three top 25 teams on their slate, according to the preseason AP Poll (No. 12 Texas Tech, No. 21 Utah and No. 23 Houston).
WVU is 5-3 on the season, so it’s done pretty well with the favorable schedule, but it is 2-3 in the conference because the favorable schedule turned out to be a lot tougher than most thought. That goes back to preseason expectations being educated guesses based on the offseason and last year’s performance, and the improved Big 12, with new quarterbacks and, more importantly, better coaching.
The latest AP Poll came out, and WVU has four teams in the top 25 on its schedule. The Mountaineers have played No. 24 Arizona and are set to play No. 3 Utah, No. 17 Houston and head to No. 13 Texas Tech this weekend.
Before this weekend and according to last weekend’s rankings, WVU had played No. 24 Oklahoma State and No. 28 Cincinnati. The Cowboys lost to Iowa State, who is another team WVU played, and are now 34. The Bearcats didn’t receive votes in this week’s rankings after a 49-25 loss to Utah.
The Mountaineers haven’t fared too well against those top-ranked opponents. WVU lost to Oklahoma State and Arizona, but it beat Cincinnati. The Mountaineers have a loss to Iowa State, too, who ended up being a lot better than people thought.
With all that said, WVU’s strength of schedule is 70th in the country. The Mountaineers’ metric is tanked by Coastal Carolina, Virginia, TCU and Kansas all having really bad seasons. Those four teams are 14-19 for a 42% win percentage on the year. If you take those teams out and don’t include the matchup against FCS’s U.T. Martin, the Mountaineers’ opponents are 41-15 for a 73% win percentage.
One of the remaining games is against one of three undefeated teams in the nation, Utah. The Mountaineers’ remaining strength of schedule is 13th in the country, which is the highest of Big 12 teams.
WVU’s strength of record, which is much more important because that’s how you do against your schedule, is 50th, according to ESPN metrics. That’ll be tested in the final four games, quite a bit. If the Mountaineers run the table, they’ll shoot up in those rankings and definitely have a shot of making the top 25.
Here are some quick projections for WVU, according to ESPN Analytics. The Mountaineers are projected to finish 6-6, have a 67% chance to get to six wins and a 0.1% chance to win out.
The first College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday, Nov. 3, at 7 p.m. on ESPN, so all of the record metrics can change in the next 24 hours for better or for worse.
WVU’s schedule, which was thought to be pretty kind, has turned a lot harder for Rodriguez in Year 2, and he’s still on the verge of getting to a bowl game and making noise in the final weeks of the season.