Trump’s political miscalculations could cost GOP both chambers
A president’s influence is not measured only by how many candidates accept his endorsement. It is measured by whether his leadership makes his party stronger. By that measure, Donald Trump’s political choices are putting Republican control of the Senate and the House at risk.
The warning signs are visible in Texas, South Carolina and Louisiana, states where Republicans should be competing from positions of strength. Instead, the party is spending heavily to defend seats that have become unexpectedly competitive after costly, divisive contests shaped by Trump’s personal loyalties.
In Texas, Trump backed Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in a Republican primary runoff. Paxton won, but the fight became extraordinarily expensive. Now Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a toss-up race, with hundreds of millions of dollars spent on advertising and Trump traveling to Texas to campaign for his nominee. Recent polling has shown Talarico narrowly ahead. Republicans may still hold the seat, but a Senate contest in Texas should not require this kind of rescue operation.
South Carolina tells a similar story. Trump backed Darline Graham over Rep. Ralph Norman in the Republican Senate runoff. Graham won narrowly. Norman was a sitting congressman with his own base, but the contest left Republicans divided. Graham now faces Democrat Annie Andrews in a race that is running close, prompting Trump to visit and Republican groups to spend millions. Graham may win, as Republicans have long expected in South Carolina. But why should a state Trump carried by 18 points be a near-even Senate contest?
In Louisiana, Trump helped Julia Letlow defeat Sen. Bill Cassidy in the Republican primary. Cassidy’s vote to convict Trump after the Jan. 6 attack made him a target. Letlow is now favored against Democrat Jamie Davis, but the episode raises a larger question: Did the party choose its strongest candidate or simply the candidate Trump preferred? Punishing a Republican senator may have satisfied the president, but it did nothing to make the national political climate easier for the party.
The same pattern has played out in the House. Marjorie Taylor Greene was once among Trump’s most visible allies. After she broke with him, partially over the release of the Epstein files, Trump withdrew his support. Greene announced she would leave Congress early, saying she wanted to spare her district a “hurtful and hateful” primary. Her departure created another fight over a Republican-held seat and revealed how quickly loyalty can turn into exile when a member exercises independence.
Then there is Thomas Massie. Trump backed Ed Gallrein against the Kentucky congressman, and Massie lost his Republican primary. The campaign became the most expensive House primary in history, with roughly $37 million spent by campaigns and aligned groups. Trump got the result he wanted. But the price was a national spectacle that made the party’s priorities look less like governing and more like settling scores with a Republican who would not always fall in line.
These fights matter because Republicans are not defending a comfortable House majority. Recent forecasts show Democrats favored to win the chamber, with many of the most competitive districts currently held by Republicans. In the Senate, too, Democrats are competitive in states Republicans expected to hold comfortably. Trump has campaigned in Texas, South Carolina, Kansas and other states where Republican candidates need help energizing voters. His rallies can bring attention and enthusiasm, but they also keep the election centered on his presidency at a time when voters are focused on prices, the economy and the direction of the country.
Trump’s defenders may argue that he is simply enforcing party discipline. But discipline is not the same as strength. A party is strongest when it can unite its voters, recruit candidates who fit their states and districts, and make a persuasive case for its record. It is weaker when experienced Republicans are pushed out, intraparty contests consume vast resources, and general-election candidates must spend the fall repairing divisions.
Paxton, Graham and Letlow may win. Trump’s preferred House candidates may win too. But winning the primary is not the same as strengthening the party for November. If Republicans lose the Senate or the House, Trump’s endorsements will not shield him from responsibility. He chose the fights, elevated the candidates and demanded loyalty. The consequences will belong to him and to every Republican who allowed personal allegiance to take precedence over the party’s chance to govern.
Armstrong Williams is manager/sole owner of Howard Stirk Holdings I & II Broadcast Television Stations.